Covid-19 - 526 times as deadly as the invasion of Grenada (so far)
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @relicn0cer
Everyone says we're "at war with the virus". It's a lie. In 1941-45, 400k+ Americans sacrificed their lives. Millions more risked their lives or were maimed. But today we dare not defend America's way of life by sacrificing 10k Americans. Death is a common medical outcome.
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Replying to @milkchaser @relicn0cer
It was 3k a week ago. The likely number if we take no action is up to about 10 million. Infectious diseases spread and this one kills about 5% of the people who catch it.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @relicn0cer
We have no way of knowing, at this point, how many are infected - hence we cannot accurately predict its lethality. To say otherwise is an act of faith or superstition.
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Replying to @milkchaser @relicn0cer
We have a few ways to infer it and we have examples of places where it arrived earlier.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @relicn0cer
Infer = guess? The only way to know is to do widespread randomized testing of representative populations. The way we do election polling? We need to do that level of sampling; not being done yet. How many were infected? That's the denominator req'd to compute lethality.
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Replying to @milkchaser @relicn0cer
Sure, there's an element of guessing but it's not just making up a number; probability actually works.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @relicn0cer
No, it's absolutely a guess. Without widespread random testing for antibodies in representative populations, it's all guessing. Think about the estimated death toll. Started @ 1 million+. Dropped to 240k to 100k. And this was always IF we mitigated and were lucky. We're at 15k.
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We were at 10k 3 days ago. Probability works; "it's a guess" means that there's a +/- factor - not that the number is just pulled out of the air.
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