Covid-19 - 526 times as deadly as the invasion of Grenada (so far)
Sure, there's an element of guessing but it's not just making up a number; probability actually works.
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No, it's absolutely a guess. Without widespread random testing for antibodies in representative populations, it's all guessing. Think about the estimated death toll. Started @ 1 million+. Dropped to 240k to 100k. And this was always IF we mitigated and were lucky. We're at 15k.
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We were at 10k 3 days ago. Probability works; "it's a guess" means that there's a +/- factor - not that the number is just pulled out of the air.
End of conversation
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