What I didn't predict correctly: (1) that a disease that kills mostly old people at some point causes society as a whole to shut down because we don't want that to happen (obvious in retrospect) (2) that bitcoin would crash in price along with stocks because of liquidityhttps://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1244283555276079105 …
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(3) that even though it felt like I was overreacting in late January, I was actually under-reacting (4) that the political RIGHT wouldn't be interested in closing borders(!) because the right has a really strong bias against reacting to emerging problems that are sciencey
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(5) that I could have made more of out of this by just questioning very basic competency assumptions, like - do we have equipment stockpiled to react to this? (I assumed we did) - are we doing proper test & trace? (I assumed we were) - is WHO competent? (I assumed it was!)
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Everything from the MSM to the agencies to the markets were about 3x stupider than I thought they would be. I knew about groupthink but I still underestimated it drastically. I am heavily updating in favor of a bunch of other contrarian hypotheses I have.
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Replying to @RokoMijic @RokoMijicUK
I'd be interested in reading these hypotheses, if you want to post them!
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Replying to @VectorOfBasis
- superintelligent AI risk is a really important problem (+ some others that I cannot talk about because of the thought police )
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Also welcome to the club on this one
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