Having written papers with Ewald and talked with him for a thousand hours or so, I probably understand his thoughts on this almost as well as you do.
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Replying to @RebbeTakes @The_WGD and
Sure we are, unless we work hard at stopping it.
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Replying to @gcochran99 @RebbeTakes and
We know of a number of cases (Ebola) in which zoonoses have jumped to humans: usually they aren't that successful in humans. But sometimes, for example measles ( from rinderpest in cattle), yellow fever (a monkey virus), they are, and saying it was unlikely doesn't help much.
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Replying to @gcochran99 @RebbeTakes and
Most crowd diseases jumped from some animal species to humans. We didn't have to the density to sustain them till fairly recently. Where else _could_ they have come from?
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Replying to @RebbeTakes @gcochran99 and
That's the gambler's fallacy in reverse. If there's a tiny chance of it happening in any particular year but a large chance of it happening eventually at some point it doesn't follow that it's impossible that this was the time it happened.
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Replying to @CovfefeAnon @RebbeTakes and
Tunguska was a hoax. What are the odds a megaton-class cometary impact would hit that exact spot in Siberia?
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The odds don't increase for each year, the cumulative odds of it having ever happened increase as years go by. PDF vs CDF
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