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CovfefeAnon's profile
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
Covfefe Anon
@CovfefeAnon

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Covfefe Anon

@CovfefeAnon

Not to be confused with 2001 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kofi Annan. 54th Clause of the Magna Carta absolutist. Commentary from an NRx perspective.

Joined July 2017

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    1. Roko‏ @RokoMijic 26 Jan 2020

      @davidmanheim or @anderssandberg or anyone else really: Is there actually a plan for shutting down international air travel in the event of a really serious virus? Or do the adults in the world just kind of "wing it"?

      10 replies 7 retweets 125 likes
      Show this thread
    2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 26 Jan 2020
      Replying to @RokoMijic @RokoMijicUK @anderssandberg

      No, there isn't such a plan, because experts are fairly unanimous that doing it would be damaging and ineffective. Every time there's a new infection, people revisit this, and "adults" (experts) need to once again talk the children in charge out of doing it.

      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
    3. Roko‏ @RokoMijic 26 Jan 2020
      Replying to @davidmanheim @anderssandberg

      Why would it be ineffective? Shutting down all air travel would retard the spread of a virus, giving more time to monitor its effects and come up with an appropriate response. Without planes, it's slow to cross the world.

      1 reply 3 retweets 32 likes
    4. This Tweet is unavailable.
    5. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 27 Jan 2020
      Replying to @umetnist @RokoMijicUK @anderssandberg

      When tried, travel bans haven't worked, and they tend to increase panic, hurt the places that need outside help, and are usually illegal as well. See this, http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs_archive/pubs-pdfs/2014/Travel%20Bans.pdf … about Ebola.

      2 replies 2 retweets 5 likes
    6. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 27 Jan 2020
      Replying to @davidmanheim @RokoMijicUK @anderssandberg

      There are papers that have argued that travel bans would stop spread. For instance, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1764026/ … . Such papers follow a pattern. First, make assumptions that imply travel bans would be effective and seem reasonable, then conclude that travel bans would be effective.

      2 replies 2 retweets 1 like
      Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 29 Jan 2020
      Replying to @davidmanheim @RokoMijicUK @anderssandberg

      "We have no studies that say that restricting travel reduces the spread of disease" Are you insane? American Samoa quarantined travelers due to the flu pandemic; Western Samoa didn't. 0 died of flu in American Samoa; 24% of the pop did in Western Samoa https://corpus.nz/influenza-1918-the-samoan-experience/ …pic.twitter.com/JaASjzKkwN

      2:25 PM - 29 Jan 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Roko
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Roko‏ @RokoMijic 29 Jan 2020
          Replying to @CovfefeAnon @davidmanheim @anderssandberg

          Obviously a successful quarantine where 0 people or relevant objects get in will also have 0 infections. The question is simply what the probability is that a quarantine will be successful and how much it would cost economically.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Covfefe Anon‏ @CovfefeAnon 29 Jan 2020
          Replying to @RokoMijic @RokoMijicUK and

          Of course; but part of the point is to first get on the right page and start with sane reasoning. "I only believe something if you can point to a study" is insane. Even "we studied quarantines and found they didn't work" is only useful for identifying flaws in quarantines.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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