6/ Let me give a concrete example. Imagine you think that aggregate nat'l-lvl social statistics are a weighted average of the characteristics of the sub-populations that make up the whole. So for example.... oh idk.... say you had an island and moved ppl onto it from elsewhere
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7/ Say you bring 10% of the population from Nigeria, and 10% from Guatemala, and 20% from Sicily, and the rest from England avg height on your island will be a weighted avg of avg heights of source-populations avg lifespan will be a weighted avg of avg lifespans of sources
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8/ & also avg weight, & avg iq, & avg susceptibility to various hereditary diseases, & avg rate of murder per 100k, & avg annual savings rate... Some stats might be changed in new envir'mt or by cross-group interactions, but 1st-order they result from avg'ing (by hypothesis)
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9/ This means: you can't just pass a healthcare law w/ goal of getting arbitrarily long lifespans, b/c you think the major determinant is the source populations. & also you can't just bring murder rate to 0 w/ strict criminal law, b/c again: linear combination of subpopulations
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10/ Here is my point. Why has attempted murder (along with many other categories of crime) skyrocketed since 19th c? Reactionaries all want to solve. NRx'ers say a sover'n state can clearly promulgate a law & clearly enforce it, and that ends murder: problem is political process
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11/ The hypothesis that different sub-pops have different murder rates (& so on for other categories of crime), so *ofc* if you add other groups to NYC or Rotherham you're going to get crime rates closer to their ancestral avg, is a different and mutually exclusive explanation!
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12/ If [nebulous ideological origin of progressivism] causes political gridlock causes legal ambiguity causes suffering, then the excess suffering can't be attributed to demographic changes. Conversely if it's exactly what you'd expect from a linear combination of sub-pops...
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13/ ... "leftism" doesn't explain anything except to the extent that leftism causes or is a reflex of the demographic changes. (Have we drifted far away from "is politics meaningful," "is originalism coherent"? Be patient...)
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14/ The awkward cases for
#NRx are something like SAfrica or Congo. Do you *really* think your sovcorp could, with sufficiently judicious bloodshed, reduce the population to compliance with any arbitrary set of "good laws"? If not - could you do it in India? In Greece?5 replies 1 retweet 6 likesShow this thread -
15/ Conversely the awkward case for (paleoreactionary?) demographic explanations is New Zealand. Whatever happens everywhere, all at once, even places w/o meaningful minority populations, can't be explained by demographics http://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2017/07/on-time-series-cross-section-and.html …
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The contrary to that view is Sweden. They sexually liberated women to the greatest extent in the world and the result is that in about 30 years the demographics are no longer that of Sweden.
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