I've seen it argued that we should have short prison sentences for many murderers because they aren't a danger for recidivism: they only just hated one guy, and that guy's not around anymore, so everything is good.
Modeling the left as if they favored maximizing crime but are under constraints that prevent the fulfillment of this goal (at minimum, people move entirely out of places they rule) does have predictive power In contrast what you're "willing to believe" doesn't
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The "constraints" are providing most of the predictive power there, because actual crime rates are so far from the maximum possible.
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Are they? The constraints are mainly people moving out of maximal crime areas - the murder rate of Baltimore is higher that of any country bar Honduras (~51 per 100k in B-more 57 per 100k in Honduras). Seems like the theoretical max to me. That's a rate that gets people to flee
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