I agree with your poll response. I think the key word is successful. I wouldn't be surprised to see an orbital launch attempt of super heavy before SLS, but SpaceX has clearly shown they are content to fail in testing. SLS basically has to succeed at this point.
Just saying.
BTW @SciGuySpace if Japan's H3 rocket is also an option I *might* have voted for it instead, it's in pad testing phase already and first flight before the end of year might just be in reach (Q1 2022 more likely though).pic.twitter.com/qBwSOfMG9s
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