Which launches first:
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I think JWST inevitably slips a bit and crewed Starliner won't be until December-ish + have been hedging my bets on SS in late Sept-early Oct. I reckon they get it to orbit successfully but it doesn't get down in one piece
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I don't have any big reason to think Starship will fail to get to orbit. None of the Starship test launches have failed on ascent. I would expect it has no more odds of failing to reach orbit than any other new launch vehicle.
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Imo it has even better odds due to the testing of Starship in 9 test flights to date.
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To be fair, all four of these will be at least somewhat experimental missions.
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James Webb launch best not be "experimental."
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