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Note that big customers likes to split LV contracts (in this range it's usually F9/Soyuz or F9/Atlas nowadays, not to mention using different size LVs). RL doesn't need to completely beat F9 to stand in the market as is, though perhaps w/ lower flight rate.
"But what about Starship?" Good question, but I doubt that Starship - assuming it can go in service soon (TM) - have *that* much lower cost than any rocket out there to squash competitors at an order of magnitude smaller. I can definitely see Starship/Neutron splits in contracts.
So I do think a conventional (?), 1st stage reusable Soyuz-Antares class rocket has quite some market to stand out. Whether RL is the one to capture it remains to be seen, but IMHO the chance is there for @Peter_J_Beck et al. to occupy.
The Starship point is one many people miss. While it may be possible to get <$10mil per flight with a high enough flight rate, it will not be even remotely close initially, as SpaceX will have a hefty dev cost to amortize. I expect initial SS (no refuel) to be similar to F9 cost
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