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Well, ultimately the amateur trackers' guesses were off by several hours. The Tianwen-1 orbiter made its orbit plane changing burn at 09:00 UTC today with its 3000N thrusters, sending it into a polar Martian orbit w/ periapsis of 265 km. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h_ipXkup2rfbSDqzub0sbw …
I wonder where did the guesses went off in the end? Perhaps it's the periapsis lowering part? @coastal8049 @ea4gpz
As I said in my post: "[...] it is possible that the burn will happen several hours away from apoapsis, favouring other conditions such as groundstation availability. [...] timing is not very critical, so it is difficult to be sure of exactly when it will be done."
If they have plenty of propellant left, other considerations take priorities over minimizing delta V?
Being so distant from Mars there would have been a lot of room to do as you please without a huge penalty.
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