Cosmic Penguin

We’re not gonna contain this. We can slow spread long enough for antivirals & maybe even a vaccine to be developed while reducing burden on healthcare infrastructure by spreading out peak of infection rate. I calculate peak will be in September, maybe November if summer slows it.https://twitter.com/EverettSchools/status/1233605444809064448 …

If your model really plays out, it would be destructive to many parts of the world economically. At the very least you can kiss schools and any public events goodbye for the rest of 2020. Luckily there's chance that spreading will greatly slow down w/ spring inbound a la SARS...

It has a much faster spread rate than SARS and has already killed a lot more people. And is in 53 countries as of yesterday INCLUDING warm countries near the equator and even Southern Hemisphere countries. Luckily the fatality rate is much lower than SARS.

The thing is that the explosive spreading of cases so far has been greatly enhanced by active suppression of news by the origin nation for MONTHS, which makes tracking of cases figures much more difficult. It's probably why I noticed that most nations are slow to react this time.

The Chinese does claim that their new cases figures are dropping daily (dunno if that's believable at all; will be interesting to see those from my city and others will follow). As with SARS there's a chance that spreading may have slowed down before vaccine comes into play.

The latter is almost certainly true by my estimations. I calculate the peak will occur sometime between September and November (inclusive), and a vaccine available at scale by December at earliest.

I dunno, but I have the feeling that the peak will be reached by next month and suppressed back to below common flu affective levels in 2-3 months...at least in the Far East where things got started. US and Europe situations may vary.

That's still not a small number! About 10-15% of the US population gets the flu every year. And that's WITH vaccines.