To be frank, I still think the small launch vehicle market is bubbling and I just can't see more than 2 US (or US-related) new small rocket LSPs surviving the near term.
https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1136638943951302656 …
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Well, the room is already very crowded with Generation Orbit, Astra Space (dunno how far they are given the secrecy) and Vector theoretically also in the run, plus more that I can't remember. Then you have the Europeans (maybe 1-2 w/ real chances) & the Chinese...