ayyyyy the New Glenn slip is finally official. Talking to an engineer or two, it's good to note that 2021 is an aspirational target - 2022 is strong possibility for launch debut.https://twitter.com/b0yle/status/1050069752679301120 …
I have been always betting for New Glenn to fly in 2023 (+- 2 years). Even flying that late isn't bad in my opinion. For reference my bet is on BFR/BFS to fly in full setup in 2026-ish with Mars surface reached in 2030 or so. Again I feel that won't be a bad outcome too.
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Yeah, I'm fairly confident that Blue can make 2022 if they hit no serious developmental roadblocks. For BFR, my money's on full launches (assuming no roadblocks, again) 2022-2024, crewed Mars missions NET 2028-2032. Any earlier would just be icing on the cake.
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Another topic: I wonder how the ULA-BO relationship will turn out, both for EELV program bids and elsewhere. It's delicate to say the least, but I wonder if there are non-spoken mutual consent or something. (or even agreements - would that be against the law?)
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