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CorbinSupak's profile
Corbin Supak
Corbin Supak
Corbin Supak
@CorbinSupak

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Corbin Supak

@CorbinSupak

the RubyViolets http://www.gypsybasilica.com 

St Pete, FL
Joined May 2019

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      Electoral forecast presentation has gotten better since 2016 but the public understanding is still not there. That probability number is not communicating this fact: as things stand, they do not, and cannot, rule out either party winning. That's the key thing people need to know.

      4 replies 35 retweets 209 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Frank

      Never fails. Yeah, you got me. I don't understand probabilities.https://twitter.com/sfspaulding/status/1322979579204636677 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Frank @sfspaulding
      @zeynep This article should've been titled "I don't Understand Probabilities and Here's Why You Shouldn't Either" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/opinion/election-forecasts-modeling-flaws.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage …
      Show this thread
      6 replies 6 retweets 176 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      As addendum, for @insight, I wrote about why I changed my mind on this, and why I was wrong in 2012 when I defended modeling when Nate Silver was being trashed by pundits. The pundits were wrong for sure. But things did not turn out the way I had hoped.https://zeynep.substack.com/p/stop-refreshing-that-forecast …

      4 replies 29 retweets 163 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      Example from today: Stories about polls and predictions do great among the "most read" pages. I get it. A lot is at stake. But there is just no way for forecasts to deliver what we seek, and as 2016 showed, it can even do harm if we rely on them and assume "likely" means certain.pic.twitter.com/mfhgyLATPH

      4 replies 12 retweets 123 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Nov 2020

      The number of comments like this—often from people who understand models and probability—really make my case. If we shouldn't be surprised with *either* outcome, that just reinforces my point. And here's why people "treat probabilities as forecasts"! https://twitter.com/liammannix/status/1323025081363099648 …pic.twitter.com/VcqWTd7dWR

      4 replies 22 retweets 167 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Nov 2020

      People keep asking if I think the forecasts are right or wrong. But you cannot ask that question of them. They can't be right or wrong. They weren't wrong in 2016. They won't be wrong now. That's their nature. But focus on prediction *can* affect the outcome. That's the danger.

      7 replies 48 retweets 281 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Nov 2020

      People in my inbox with that are favorable or not to Biden. I never said that the models are wrong.🙄 It's that they CANNOT be right OR wrong. The model probabilities you are seeing are NOT making that kind of prediction, and, crucially, the unknown unknowns are not factored in.

      11 replies 11 retweets 167 likes
      Show this thread
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jessica Hullman

      If you're looking for a distraction: Excellent academic article from @StatModeling @JessicaHullman @CBWlezien, @gelliottmorris & @JessicaHullman on communicating about forecasts—what they are, what they aren't. Again: the forecasts aren't wrong! Or right!https://twitter.com/JessicaHullman/status/1322981825040523271 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Jessica Hullman @JessicaHullman
      Echoes lots of points made in our article http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/jdm200907b.pdf … I wonder though what people would be doing if professionals didn't do forecasting? Overanalyzing polls? Anxiously querying friends? https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1322954214641979392 …
      3 replies 14 retweets 116 likes
      Show this thread
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sam Stein

      Without making claims about any other state or the outcome. (I don't know!). Polling has clearly missed Florida, at least. Polling in a year like this included extra uncertainty. And it's also plausible that forecasts impacted/energized voters differently.https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1323786156551581697 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Sam SteinVerified account @samstein
      And now we wait to see if the polling misses in Florida were unique to that state.
      3 replies 10 retweets 96 likes
      Show this thread
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Nov 2020

      This is how fragile those forecasts were. One state has a polling error, and the forecast now says Trump has one-in-three chance of winning. If errors are broadly correlated—not just Miami Cubans—the odds go up more. Big numbers don't imply big certainty. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ …pic.twitter.com/Hu1nCwRBEi

      9 replies 34 retweets 209 likes
      Show this thread
      Corbin Supak‏ @CorbinSupak 3 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      but what are you comparing this sort of forecasting to? what would perform better?

      6:17 PM - 3 Nov 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Waffle Cut‏ @Wafflecut 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @CorbinSupak @zeynep

          I’d ask a different question. I’d ask how much of your time and attention these forecasts deserve.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Jason Hahn‏ @JasonLHahn 3 Nov 2020
          Replying to @CorbinSupak @zeynep

          If it’s not the forecasts then it’s the polls and interpretations of them. Can’t see how that’s better.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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