Electoral forecast presentation has gotten better since 2016 but the public understanding is still not there. That probability number is not communicating this fact: as things stand, they do not, and cannot, rule out either party winning. That's the key thing people need to know.
but what are you comparing this sort of forecasting to? what would perform better?
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I’d ask a different question. I’d ask how much of your time and attention these forecasts deserve.
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If it’s not the forecasts then it’s the polls and interpretations of them. Can’t see how that’s better.
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It's that they CANNOT be right OR wrong. The model probabilities you are seeing are NOT making that kind of prediction, and, crucially, the unknown unknowns are not factored in.