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Simple model: Dems vote straight D, Reps vote straight R, and Independents vote a mixed ticket. x-axis measures number of R compared to D. y=i-x, where i is % of Indep who vote for Trump. i should be approx indep of x, so slope should be about -1. Actual slope is approx -0.6.

3:52 PM · Nov 11, 2020Twitter Web App

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and

That definitely can be part of the mix and influence, which is why more than 4 counties should be looked at. In places where R is dominant, independents are more influenced in that community likely, so that could be raising the slope from -1.

DangeRuss K.

@rpk1974

Nov 12, 2020

I should say make the slope less severe than -1....

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