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Interesting, but the assumption that the line should be horizontal cannot be right. Most extreme possible y vals for a given x: ymin = -x ymax = 100% - x The only horizontal line that satisfies for all x is y=0. Bounds suggest, but don't prove, that slope should be negative.

11:56 PM · Nov 10, 2020Twitter Web App

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and

My point exactly!

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Yuh

@ming_yuh

Nov 11, 2020

Why was there a difference in Wayne County? There was no slope at all, looked like a random spread of data.

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and

As you move to the right however, relative consistency should still exist. Slope possibly in either direction, or more likely a scatter plot with ridiculously inconsistent R^2 correlation. There can’t be consistency to 20 to 25 percent then a cliff.

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Hot Neuron LLC

@Clustify

Nov 11, 2020

The data for Macomb & Kent would fit a straight line at least as well as they fit with the kink (just eyeballing it). It is only Oakland where the data really suggests a kink. I would argue if there is an anomaly it is below 20%, not above, based on this:

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Hot Neuron LLC

@Clustify

· Nov 11, 2020

Replying to @va_shiva

Simple model: Dems vote straight D, Reps vote straight R, and Independents vote a mixed ticket. x-axis measures number of R compared to D. y=i-x, where i is % of Indep who vote for Trump. i should be approx indep of x, so slope should be about -1. Actual slope is approx -0.6.

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and

yes it should be a slight downward trend, but not cliff diving down

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Hot Neuron LLC

@Clustify

Nov 11, 2020

This simple argument shows that the slope could reasonably be even steeper without it being fraud:

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Hot Neuron LLC

@Clustify

· Nov 11, 2020

Replying to @va_shiva

Simple model: Dems vote straight D, Reps vote straight R, and Independents vote a mixed ticket. x-axis measures number of R compared to D. y=i-x, where i is % of Indep who vote for Trump. i should be approx indep of x, so slope should be about -1. Actual slope is approx -0.6.

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Replying to

and

y= Trump%-x If y fluctuates around a constant c, then trump%=x+ c +σ If we assume x spans 0 to 100%, then the following should be satisfied: a) trump%=0+c+σ →c has to be non negative b) trump%=100%+c+σ →c has to be non positive But did Rep gets 100%?

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