Oh no, not again...
This story is... unconvincing. First off it’s just two scientists (no publication), one of whom has made similar (unsupported) claims before & ignores the context that permafrost & methane have been degrading in this region since it was inundated in the early Holocene.https://twitter.com/guardianeco/status/1321115961710161926 …
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The geologic evidence does indicate rapid clathrate loss at some points in time, the Storegga Slide of 8.2 kyr fame, potentially linked to deep warming, but your point is well-taken that there is not yet enough science to predict these massive release events in the future
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Methane went down at the 8.2 kyr event.
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I don't understand. You know better than most that warming is causing methane release from tundra and clathrates at an increasing rate, in the present and the past. The "methane bomb" may be the final accelerating feedback we can't override.
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People have been claiming this for a decade now and there is still no evidence of increasing arctic methane in the atmosphere. Evidence that this is a big effect is totally lacking in the Early Holocene and Last Interglacial when the Arctic was significantly warmer than today.
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How about this https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251/htm …? I have no idea how convincing it is, but it is a publication by someone mentioned in the Guardian.
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Mdpi is very low reputation does almost no peer review. This is an earlier paper by the same author in the same publication - so little peer review they didn't spot that the paper says the last ice age ended 5-12 years ago https://www.quora.com/q/auvqlllunpfjglkj/Clathrate-gun-hypothesis-Shakhova-et-al-ignoring-evidence-against-their-hypothesis-and-publishing-in-a-science-journal …pic.twitter.com/1dEECI9GZN
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Also trying to make this point about the article today!
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I remember reading somewhere about a new methane detecting satellite - there was a map - but it was land only; oceans were blank This remote sensing would seem tailored for remote Arctic, if it's able to do levels near ocean surface Any chance my 2 + 2 actually equals 4?
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