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As 2019 wraps up, what can we look forward to in 2020? More of the same, plus a little bit more...pic.twitter.com/nmMP6riIjZ
The 2019 annual mean (~1.18ºC) is going to be surprisingly(?) close to what was predicted in Dec 2018 just based on the ENSO state (~1.16ºC). I predict 2020 will likely come in higher than 2019 (68%), with a ~40% chance of a new record high. Definitely another top 5 year.
Here's what I predicted in Dec 2018:https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1068336648507801600?s=20 …
Methodology based on https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-dont-know-if-it-will-be-sunny-next-month-but-we-know-itll-be-hot-all-year/ … @FiveThirtyEight
using @climatesociety predictions for DJF Nino3.4 and MEIv2 from @NOAANCEIclimate.
The ENSO condition in the coming year is even more uncertain than usual, & probably more uncertain than represented in model ensembles.
Based on 70 yrs of ONI 2020 is likely to be hotter than 2019: https://twitter.com/marcusgibson/status/1206720897307987968?s=21 …https://twitter.com/Marcusgibson/status/1206720897307987968 …
Great to have someone with your gravitas here Mr Schmidt, perhaps you can help by answering a question that Richard seems to be struggling with: Please list all the factors which influence global temp. Please describe and quantify each one?
Umm... bit of a tall order in a tweet. Lots to choose from, & they all have different fingerprints & different times when they were relevant: GHGs, volcanoes, solar, orbit, continental drift, air pollution, ozone depletion, asteroid impacts, land cover change, evolution…
Do you have one of these graphs just for Australia, because we've a #NotMyPM who's of the belief that Australia doesn't belong to the rest of the world, so I we do nothing about CC because we're to small! @ScottMorrisonMP #Scomomustgo
The ANZAC Corps was pretty small in the First World War, but few said AUS shouldn't contribute to the war effort.
Oh, that John Christy again. https://skepticalscience.com/John_Christy_blog.htm …
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