Talking about their predictions:
Climate Scientists - Meteorologists
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Michael Grose - climate
@ClimateGrose
Australian climate scientist - projections, attribution, climate sensitivity, impacts and communications. lead author - Atlas. Views are my own
AustraliaJoined April 2020
Michael Grose - climate’s Tweets
Very happy to see our IPCC Atlas co-author Svitlana recognised in Nature's ten! Svitlana has been doing her work, contributing to IPCC and being a great advocate against the war, all from the war zone in Kyiv. She is amazing 🤩
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maybe a good time to bump this one - brr
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For example, here's an article - but even if the attribution of the hazard is possible and confident, the history and causes of the vulnerability are far trickier and much more important in many cases, so I wonder about how this will all work
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Does anyone have links to good articles/analysis on potential use (or not) of formal event attribution in calculations of Loss and Damage arising from COP27?
Seems like many assume that it will be central, but there are important limitations and pitfalls
? anyone?
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State of the Climate 2022 - here's my update of the basic Australian temperature projection figure. It was a bit complicated in 2020, I tried to make it simpler, adding bars to the side. Any feedback or critique welcome 🤔👍
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New IPCC Fact Sheets for sectors - including disaster management. Thanks to the mighty for all the hard work! (I did very little)
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The State of the Climate report is out, congrats to all those involved - check out our future climate section
Currently Reading State of the Climate: (csiro.au/en/research/en)
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I think some people go awry with EA and Longtermism when they do silly maths with extremely large numbers, take things to absolutes, focus on one viewpoint and things like that.
I think the WWOTF book is a lot there for climate folks I think – even if you don’t agree with it all
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And I found that it IS about being humble about what we know, not about narrow predictions. Rather just giving the future attention and considering ways to make bad futures less likely, e.g., encourage a plurality of views and avoid ‘value lock in’ to a bad set of values 6/7
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Next - I think ‘what we owe the future’ gives a good case for Longtermism if everyone is as moral as McKaskill (people aren’t, maybe that is the problem). It aligns with climate change science - giving five reasons to decarbonise the economy, yay 5/7
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But then the billionaires and Silicon Valley crowd come in – and it gets murkier. And ‘doing crypto to give’ (like SBF) just stank to me as soon as I heard it. Ugh. How you earn the money matters. How the money system of course matters. Perverse incentives matter 4/7
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And ‘earning to give’ also makes sense to me (earning in a decent way). I don’t have the skills to do effective charity work, so it makes sense to give money instead. Getting a higher paid job to donate more – great. ‘Giving what you can’ does a lot of good 3/7
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The best side of it – my money directly helped the poorest people, saved lives. It feels good. If we have charity, why not make it effective? Better than celebrity foundations with a >50% slush fund and not even checking if the $$ is doing good. I hope that Givewell continues 2/7
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As someone who has given money to effective charities (through GiveWell), and very much enjoyed Will Mackaskill's longtermism book, I was confused by the scathing rejection of this area by some climate people.
This thread and article are useful... but some thoughts. Short 🧵1/7
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I've got a few things to say about all this SBF/FTX/EA mishegas, and I guess I might as well say them before this website dies. I want to pivot off this characteristically excellent piece from @EricLevitz. nymag.com/intelligencer/
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oh my god, i have had this account for two years and twitter is apparently about to die, and I just discovered there's all these messages under 'message requests' - what is that? sorry if that is you and I never replied!
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weird times. If the site does go down tonight, just wanted to say that I have really valued all the Australian and international people who contribute so much valuable information and opinions - I always learn so much whenever I check in. I might see you over at Mastodon,
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Very nice to talk to ABC for this story - and while it is frustrating we can't be more specific about the role/s of climate change in recent floods, it was good to talk about the general situation and principles
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This Economist article about breaking 1.5 deg is getting a lot of attention - it is important to talk (and think) about this clearly, blowing 1.5 doesn't mean 2 is inevitable, the lower the better.
Here was our Conversation article at the time of AR6:
theconversation.com/ipcc-says-eart
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Check out this great new easier to read summary of the IPCC AR6!!
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Today we’re launching Climate Change 2021: SUMMARY FOR ALL!
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1
#ipcc #SummaryforAll #climatechange #COP27
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A couple of observations so far (2 week in, started early for nomow😆) - only daisies and dandelions, and they way less busy than the lavender etc.
Not sure it is much use, but might still be just enough of an excuse to skip mowing when I don't feel like it
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The northern hemisphere do 'no mow may' to help the bees (a few more flowers in lawns might help a little) - does anyone know if the equivalent of maybe 'no mow November' would be of any benefit in Australia?
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I often wondered how those estimates of travel emissions from the super/ultra wealthy were so incredibly high, this helped:
15+ private jet flights per month, a huge motor yacht taken from Med to St Bart's and back each a year (on a ship!) - gobsmacking
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makes me wonder about counterfactuals - like how things could play out better if we were able to follow up on the early evidence more rapidly - maybe the evidence base could have consolidated more quickly and reached a critical mass earlier
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thanks for voting everyone! These results support my previous position - that there was evidence back to Arhennius 1896 or before, but there was a critical mass by the 1980s. The FAR and beyond, things were just getting more confirmed
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Just to be clear - this isn't about political will, awareness, public opinion or whatever - just when the evidence base was there in an established form (very abstract I know, but I was thinking through what i thought and wanted a reality check)
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I'm interested in opinions here - when do you think we had a sufficient evidence base to confidently justify reducing (or avoiding) greenhouse gas emissions?
- 1890s-1970s (please note)12.9%
- the 1980s54.8%
- IPCC FAR 199022.6%
- After 19909.7%
31 votesFinal results
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A quick comment from me on event attribution, and some comments from David K too in this nice article
What caused the flood disaster? Is the climate crisis to blame?
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Narsey, Sugata, , Francois Delage, Ghyslaine Boschat, , Rob Colman, and Scott Power. "Storylines of South Pacific Convergence Zone Changes in a Warmer World", Journal of Climate 35, 20 (2022): 2949-2967, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D #JClimate
read image description
ALT
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I should have been clearer - I have clear directions and a defined area to cover, I just have a bit of wiggle room within that. It is on a particular area, but there aren't specific points to cover. I was interested in what you've found works best to inform which way I lean
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What are some top tips for giving a guest lecture to a postgrad group?
E.g. is it better to cover one or two topics in detail, or give a flavour of a wider range of topics and try to convey enthusiasm for the big picture?
Any advice welcome 🙏
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Absolutely great group to work with, please share around:
Research Fellow in Climate Variability
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When I started in this area, I would read the AR4 and look at the author lists and think they must be on some higher plane than us mere humans. Now to see my little name appearing on such an illustrious list, and to be asked to speak in a video, it just feels a bit surreal 😊
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Somehow I managed to appear a video for the IPCC on Australasia in WG1, have a look
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I spoke to ABC News about the Pakistan floods, here's the story
Changing climate the reason floods in Pakistan are so devastating abc.net.au/news/2022-09-0 via
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Wow, I have only just learned that Frank Capra (It's a Wonderful Life etc.) made a film for schools in 1958 that mentions climate change - at about 50 min mark (just after a bit on steering hurricanes by setting oil fires or oil slicks on the ocean😳)
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Proposed Figure 3, in which the effect of the Leeuwin seems very clear in delaying coldest day
Editor note: why not combine this with previous figure into a single map?
Response: my laptop runs out of RAM and would need to write the code differently
Editor: *eyeroll*
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Here's the method by the way - done for each grid cell, maybe not the only way to do it, but I thought it was ok
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Here’s an interesting thing – I was checking when the coldest day (Tmax) was on average in Hobart, then I thought why not look at it as a map!? Some interesting patterns here – the effect of snow makes sense but why is it so late in Adelaide and Flinders Is??
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