1. The current trajectory is grim with up two to three feet of sea level rise by the 2040s and impacts that would be truly dangerous & destabilizing, enough to 'transform human societies the world over'.
Conversation
2. A "realistic range" of sea-level rise:
"With the current global temperature level and rate of temperature increase.. we could get 5 to 10 feet before the end of this century"
Impacts would be 'truly dangerous & destabilizing' even at 3-4 feet.
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3. The melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica "is overtaking the climate models we use to guide us, and we are in danger of being unprepared for the risks posed by sea level rise."
There's a real risk of calamitous 0.5 metre rise by 2040 - 2045.
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4. Sea level rise is already an accelerating threat.
The IPCC now accepts the possibility of 1.7m of SLR by 2100, but 2m - 7m is possible according to experts. All too much for coastal cities.
We may anticipate impacts as early as 2035 - 2045.
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Remember:
Bangkok
Manila
Mumbai
Ho Chi Minh City
Jakarta
Alexandria
Fiji
Chittagong
Kiribati
Basrah
The Maldives
Vancouver
Skegness
Seychelles
La Rochelle
Surabaya
Georgetown
Amsterdam
Shanghai
All underwater by 2035.
Bangkok
Manila
Mumbai
Ho Chi Minh City
Jakarta
Alexandria
Fiji
Chittagong
Kiribati
Basrah
The Maldives
Vancouver
Skegness
Seychelles
La Rochelle
Surabaya
Georgetown
Amsterdam
Shanghai
All underwater by 2035.Show this thread
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5. "The fact is it just hasn't really sunk in, even in the science community, that we've effectively lost the ice sheets. It's just a matter of time before we see many metres of sea level rise. So, society has to now brace itself for a catastrophe." J. Box
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6. Thread:
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Greenland:
1. ice sheet now beyond tipping point and expected to completely disappear due to global warming of more than 2°C which will hit around 2030 - 2040
2. ice loss: 1/4 trillion tons per year
3. melt acceleration is exponential
4. sea level rise feedback has begun
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7. Happening now..
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BREAKING : scientists discover weaknesses in ice shelf holding back Antarctica’s 'doomsday' glacier suggesting it could shatter within the next 3 to 5 years
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8. A recent tipping reassessment: 'the threshold is closer to 1 °C..which of course we have already passed, and are witnessing the collapse of part of the West Antarctic ice sheet already, and we can’t rule out an irreversible shrinkage of ice in Greenland'
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9. 'In equilibrium.. assuming a central climate sensitivity of 3 ∘C.. 411 ppm.. would imply.. 1.7 ∘C'
We're now already at 417 ppm.
'1.5 ∘C of warming could come with multi-metre sea level rise by 2300.. and the likely demise of coral reefs..'
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10. A possible error in the Guardian article discussed here. The points I make all stand, however.
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Replying to @MartinJBern
0.75m - 1m will be hard or (in some cases) impossible to cope with.
We can't know exactly how SLR will play out this century, but well over 1m this century or next looks likely to me all things considered. We should be using the precautionary principle.
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11. Another video here from Prof. Jason Box whose quote I paraphrased at the beginning of the thread. Quite remarkable presentation:
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Replying to @xr_cambridge
This video by @climate_ice is also very worth watching. Eye opening account of how the models are not able to predict ice loss as high as observed from Greenland Ice Sheet, begins at 44 min @ClimateBen youtube.com/watch?v=oAIzJd
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4 to 10 m sea level rise is committed over the coming 2000 years #IPCC #AR6
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13.
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"Our findings, in comparison to current sea level projections, confront us with a shocking reality: the much larger, already locked-in sea level rise than what ice-sheet models project by end of century, even under high carbon emissions. Our numbers are twice as large ..." twitter.com/climate_ice/st…
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14. A computer model has been created by researchers that determines the rate at which Greenland’s glacier fronts are melting. It reflects recent observations of an Alaskan glacier front melting up to 100 times as fast as previously assumed.
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Yeah, keep voting for the 2 party monopoly and all of this man's apocalyptic dreams will come true.
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Now do the Arctic. Add in thawing perma frost expelling methane and pressurized underground methane exploding leaving huge crater.
I'm so glad I'll be dead in 20 years.
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