I'm re-examining MI Oakland County from first principles, since I agree that similarity of 2016 and 2020 doesn't preclude manipulation in both elections, tho I think that it counts against it.
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7/ Some obvious points. In intense D precincts, straight D share reached 80%, whereas straight R share never reached 50% in any precinct. The proportion of mixed tickets with Biden presidential vote was ~20% in all precincts.
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8/ this graph contains ALL the information in the Shiva graph plus considerably more. The downward slope in Shiva graph at right arises because of larger increase in StrR share than MixR share (as shown in replot of graph in X-order Dem to R left to right).pic.twitter.com/80hoCpFHi0
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9/ one observation can already be made from this graph on Shiva claims: the spread between StrD and MixD (and thus between StrD and TotalD) increases even more dramatically on left than spread between StrR and MixR (and thus TotalR) on right.
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10/ I.e. the increasing spread between Str and Total with greater intensity is likely to be a property of Straight Ticket voting and supports my original criticism that an exploratory analysis with novel statistical comparison cannot PROVE manipulation (or even begin to prove it)
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11/ all of the underlying data comes from https://results.enr.clarityelections.com//MI/Oakland/105840/269402/reports/detailxls.zip …
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12/ wrangled data is online in csv http://www.climateaudit.info/data/election/MI_Oakland-2020.csv … Column headings self-explanatory
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13/ there are only 6 states which offer Straight Ticket option. SC is one of them. Here is County-level graph in same format as MI-Oakland precinct graph above. Increased spread between StrR and MixR in more R counties.pic.twitter.com/BcytwhXM4p
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14/ Here's Oakland MI for 2016 in same format plus smoothing line.
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AL is one of six states which permits straight ticket vote. Here's Jefferson County AL by precinct. Familiar look.pic.twitter.com/wSPcnvBACT
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End of conversation
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Have you looked at how hard the pan handle went for Biden?
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