6/ people looking back can easily mis-apprehend events. One assumes that Flynn KNEW details of expulsions when he talked to Kislyak on Dec 29, but that does not appear to have been the case.
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17/ my own interpretation (without huge confidence) is that Flynn, as instructed (and quite reasonably) asked Kislyak to let new admin look at things and, in a general sense, not to escalate, but expected some sore of reciprocal action. On specifics of expulsion + closures, Flynn
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18/ would, without question, have wanted to see what Obama admin had done (rather than rely on Kislyak) and to get instructions before commenting to Kislyak on the issues of expulsion and closure which the FBI agents later asked him about.
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19/ from the 302 - and this is counterintuitive and requires watching the pea very closely - it doesn't appear that FBI agents actually asked Flynn about "sanctions" (which they might not have distinguished from "expulsions" and "closures".)
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20/ Dec 30: Putin saucily decided not to reciprocate with expulsions, but to invite US representatives in Moscow to a party (or similar). Kislyak, trying to build bridges with new admin, called Flynn to say that Russian restraint was due to Flynn's call. Flynn called transition.pic.twitter.com/3EoocPwUUi
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21/ 302: agents asked Flynn about Kislyak's follow up call to say that Russia had decided not to escalate. In his best imitation of Hillary (or Comey), Flynn implausibly said that "it was possible but he didn't remember".pic.twitter.com/x64HfWZ553
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22/ Hillary and Comey each said they "did not remember" for hundreds of questions and FBI/DOJ just shrugged their shoulders. However, when Flynn (implausibly) said the same, FBI charged that he "falsely stated that he did not remember a follow-up conversation", one of 2 counts.pic.twitter.com/td0guDCYWh
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23/ on Jan 12, someone in Resistance cabal told David Ignatius that Flynn had talked to Kislyak on Dec 29 http://archive.is/IFfZl - a huge sensation since Steele Dossier had been published on Jan 10 following leaks from Comey-Brennan-Clapper cabal.pic.twitter.com/NsSM1nHS2v
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24/ Ignatius speculated on possible violation of Logan Act - a ludicrous conceit concocted by Sally Yates. Ignatius' mention of Logan Act is thus slight (but only slight) pointer towards DOJ or FBI origin of leak.
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25/ on Jan 14, WH spox John Earnest didn't see any problem in principle, that "incoming national security adviser may have need to contact representative of foreign government" despite lurid headline: "WH: We Didn’t Coordinate Flynn Call to RussAmbassador https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/14/white-house-we-didnt-coordinate-flynn-call-to-russian-ambassador.html …pic.twitter.com/WobHIAGp1y
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26/ Obama had obligation to notify incoming admin of expulsions or even to consult. But maybe Obama didn't notify Trump team because they planned to surveille how Russia contacted transition. Would untoward backchannel be revealed? In fact, Russia contacted Flynn, proper channel.
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27/ these Flynn events are discussed in Mueller Report 236 pdf. Mueller fails to disclose that Obama admin appears to have notified Russia of sanctions on Dec 28, one day prior to 2 pm Dec 29 announcement, that Kislyak texted Flynn on Dec 28.pic.twitter.com/w0LDuUbF6K
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28/ in my interpretation of sequence set out above, it appeared to me that Kislyak-Flynn conversation took place prior to Flynn being aware of terms of Obama admin announcement (~2:15 pm), but Mueller indicates that call was in evening of Dec 29pic.twitter.com/NL6euF9syU
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29/ incoming Trump admin didn't want the departing Obama admin to escalate tensions as a sort of parting booby trap. Trump is also reported to have interpreted Obama's action as an attempt to "delegitimize election" - an interpretation that seems quite reasonable in retrospectpic.twitter.com/Hwo7ZUb4jh
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30/ as is Flynn called Kislyak and asked that Russia not make the situation worse. Recognizing that there was a new incoming administration, Russia decided not to escalate.pic.twitter.com/sonGZh7p2J
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31/ on Dec 31, Kislyak called Flynn to convey that Russia had decided not to escalate tensions.pic.twitter.com/QuKTwhjKKw
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32/ description of events thus far in Mueller Report more or less follows Indictment. Now something new from Mary McCord's interview. FBI already had open "investigation of Flynn based on his relationship with Russian government". His contacts with Kislyak were "key component"pic.twitter.com/nB2algdfZx
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33/ on what predicate did FBI open investigation into Flynn's "relationship with Russian government"? When did they open investigation? Did they have surveillance on Flynn? For how long?
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34/ McCord's evidence suggests that story about Flynn's discussion with Kislyak being incidentally picked up during routine surveillance of Kislyak is a legend. It seems more likely that they were surveilling Flynn and pick-up of conversation was NOT incidental.
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End of conversation
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