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ClimateAudit's profile
Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre
Stephen McIntyre
@ClimateAudit

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Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

climateaudit.org
Joined August 2015

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    1. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      6/ people looking back can easily mis-apprehend events. One assumes that Flynn KNEW details of expulsions when he talked to Kislyak on Dec 29, but that does not appear to have been the case.

      1 reply 41 retweets 99 likes
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    2. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      7/ watch the pea as Mueller Indictment recites chronology. It began with Obama's Dec 28 Executive Order. Mueller stated that the executive order "announced sanctions against Russia." But the order wasn't "announced" on Dec 28. It appears to have been announced ~2:15 pm Dec 29.pic.twitter.com/AFwcmtlvmV

      2 replies 54 retweets 79 likes
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    3. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      8/ Obama announcement made Dec 29 2:12 pm https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/12/29/statement-president-actions-response-russian-malicious-cyber-activity/ …. It announced expulsion of 35 persona non grata, seizure of 2 Russian compounds and sanctions on nine Russian institutions and 4 individuals. If words are important, "sanctions" and expulsions may be distinguishedpic.twitter.com/h7TvJHjnjy

      3 replies 36 retweets 73 likes
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    4. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      9/ Mueller indictment says tht Flynn called [Kushner] on Dec 29 prior to calling Kislyak. Transition team (reasonably) didn't want "escalation" as Obama admin laying down poison pills. If call prior to 2 pm (as appears likely), necessarily general only, as they didnt know detailspic.twitter.com/uyJiP4XpFX

      2 replies 41 retweets 73 likes
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    5. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      10/ Mueller chronology implies that they knew contents of Obama executive order the previous day, but they didn't.

      2 replies 44 retweets 92 likes
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    6. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      11/ Mueller indictment said that Flynn then called Kislyak and asked that they "not escalate the situation and only respond to the U.S. Sanctions in a reciprocal manner." As noted above, if before 2 pm, Flynn didn't know details, except as Kislyak may have told him.pic.twitter.com/tyQS5rx1XO

      2 replies 36 retweets 65 likes
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    7. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      12/ Flynn 302 say tht agents asked Flynn if discussed "expulsion of Russian diplomats or closing of Russian properties". Kislyak may have told him about these still unannounced actions. But Flynn didn't know about it, had no instructions, not likely that he free-lanced on this.pic.twitter.com/tye5haVGfi

      2 replies 34 retweets 71 likes
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    8. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      13/ Agents asked Flynn about discussion of the "expulsions". Flynn said that he "didn't remember. It wasn't 'Don't do anything'". Flynn said that he didn't know about Persona Non Grata (expulsions) until "in media" i.e. afternoon Dec 29.pic.twitter.com/UDZrgMbnAh

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    9. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      14/ another nugget from Flynn 302 https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.191592/gov.uscourts.dcd.191592.62.0.pdf …: the word "sanctions" does NOT occur anywhere in 302. The 302 mentions "expulsions" and "closures", two legs of Obama exec order but didnt mention "sanctions", the technique used by Treasury.

      2 replies 29 retweets 54 likes
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    10. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      15/ a reminder from Obama executive order https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/12/29/statement-president-actions-response-russian-malicious-cyber-activity …: "sanctions" are not the same thing in the order as "expulsions" or "closures". Sanctions were what everyone was used to and expected. The expulsions and closures were unexpected and what FBI asked about.pic.twitter.com/uoauw7lZq5

      1 reply 26 retweets 42 likes
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      Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

      16/ after clause on Kislyak-Flynn conversation, Mueller indictment stated that Flynn called [Kushner] to report on Kislyak call, including their "discussion of the U.S. Sanctions", though, as noted above, the word "sanctions" does not occur in the 302.pic.twitter.com/LQ3wiQ3MNY

      8:30 PM - 20 Dec 2018
      • 27 Retweets
      • 38 Likes
      • 🌑GREAT DANE SMR DARK TO LIGHT🌕 Audreys Observations Caesar ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Michele tom hodgett Truthsetsufree Peter Mellon Sr🌟🌟🌟 Mountaingirl101 Sidney Powell 🇺🇸⭐⭐⭐
      1 reply 27 retweets 38 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          17/ my own interpretation (without huge confidence) is that Flynn, as instructed (and quite reasonably) asked Kislyak to let new admin look at things and, in a general sense, not to escalate, but expected some sore of reciprocal action. On specifics of expulsion + closures, Flynn

          1 reply 20 retweets 36 likes
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        3. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          18/ would, without question, have wanted to see what Obama admin had done (rather than rely on Kislyak) and to get instructions before commenting to Kislyak on the issues of expulsion and closure which the FBI agents later asked him about.

          1 reply 19 retweets 36 likes
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        4. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          19/ from the 302 - and this is counterintuitive and requires watching the pea very closely - it doesn't appear that FBI agents actually asked Flynn about "sanctions" (which they might not have distinguished from "expulsions" and "closures".)

          2 replies 21 retweets 35 likes
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        5. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          20/ Dec 30: Putin saucily decided not to reciprocate with expulsions, but to invite US representatives in Moscow to a party (or similar). Kislyak, trying to build bridges with new admin, called Flynn to say that Russian restraint was due to Flynn's call. Flynn called transition.pic.twitter.com/3EoocPwUUi

          1 reply 20 retweets 37 likes
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        6. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          21/ 302: agents asked Flynn about Kislyak's follow up call to say that Russia had decided not to escalate. In his best imitation of Hillary (or Comey), Flynn implausibly said that "it was possible but he didn't remember".pic.twitter.com/x64HfWZ553

          2 replies 26 retweets 36 likes
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        7. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          22/ Hillary and Comey each said they "did not remember" for hundreds of questions and FBI/DOJ just shrugged their shoulders. However, when Flynn (implausibly) said the same, FBI charged that he "falsely stated that he did not remember a follow-up conversation", one of 2 counts.pic.twitter.com/td0guDCYWh

          4 replies 54 retweets 70 likes
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        8. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          23/ on Jan 12, someone in Resistance cabal told David Ignatius that Flynn had talked to Kislyak on Dec 29 http://archive.is/IFfZl  - a huge sensation since Steele Dossier had been published on Jan 10 following leaks from Comey-Brennan-Clapper cabal.pic.twitter.com/NsSM1nHS2v

          1 reply 29 retweets 39 likes
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        9. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          24/ Ignatius speculated on possible violation of Logan Act - a ludicrous conceit concocted by Sally Yates. Ignatius' mention of Logan Act is thus slight (but only slight) pointer towards DOJ or FBI origin of leak.

          3 replies 27 retweets 40 likes
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        10. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 20 Dec 2018

          25/ on Jan 14, WH spox John Earnest didn't see any problem in principle, that "incoming national security adviser may have need to contact representative of foreign government" despite lurid headline: "WH: We Didn’t Coordinate Flynn Call to RussAmbassador https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/14/white-house-we-didnt-coordinate-flynn-call-to-russian-ambassador.html …pic.twitter.com/WobHIAGp1y

          1 reply 25 retweets 35 likes
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        11. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit 21 Dec 2018

          26/ Obama had obligation to notify incoming admin of expulsions or even to consult. But maybe Obama didn't notify Trump team because they planned to surveille how Russia contacted transition. Would untoward backchannel be revealed? In fact, Russia contacted Flynn, proper channel.

          7 replies 53 retweets 68 likes
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        12. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit Apr 20

          27/ these Flynn events are discussed in Mueller Report 236 pdf. Mueller fails to disclose that Obama admin appears to have notified Russia of sanctions on Dec 28, one day prior to 2 pm Dec 29 announcement, that Kislyak texted Flynn on Dec 28.pic.twitter.com/w0LDuUbF6K

          1 reply 3 retweets 3 likes
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        13. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit Apr 20

          28/ in my interpretation of sequence set out above, it appeared to me that Kislyak-Flynn conversation took place prior to Flynn being aware of terms of Obama admin announcement (~2:15 pm), but Mueller indicates that call was in evening of Dec 29pic.twitter.com/NL6euF9syU

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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        14. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit Apr 20

          29/ incoming Trump admin didn't want the departing Obama admin to escalate tensions as a sort of parting booby trap. Trump is also reported to have interpreted Obama's action as an attempt to "delegitimize election" - an interpretation that seems quite reasonable in retrospectpic.twitter.com/Hwo7ZUb4jh

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        15. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit Apr 20

          30/ as is Flynn called Kislyak and asked that Russia not make the situation worse. Recognizing that there was a new incoming administration, Russia decided not to escalate.pic.twitter.com/sonGZh7p2J

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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        16. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit Apr 20

          31/ on Dec 31, Kislyak called Flynn to convey that Russia had decided not to escalate tensions.pic.twitter.com/QuKTwhjKKw

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        17. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit Apr 20

          32/ description of events thus far in Mueller Report more or less follows Indictment. Now something new from Mary McCord's interview. FBI already had open "investigation of Flynn based on his relationship with Russian government". His contacts with Kislyak were "key component"pic.twitter.com/nB2algdfZx

          1 reply 2 retweets 1 like
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        18. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit Apr 20

          33/ on what predicate did FBI open investigation into Flynn's "relationship with Russian government"? When did they open investigation? Did they have surveillance on Flynn? For how long?

          4 replies 5 retweets 8 likes
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        19. Stephen McIntyre‏ @ClimateAudit Apr 20

          34/ McCord's evidence suggests that story about Flynn's discussion with Kislyak being incidentally picked up during routine surveillance of Kislyak is a legend. It seems more likely that they were surveilling Flynn and pick-up of conversation was NOT incidental.

          2 replies 13 retweets 22 likes
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        20. End of conversation

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