Conversation

I plan to write up a forecast retrospective for soon™, but overall I performed well—especially towards the end. Me vs. Metaculus Community during the final days with probabilities recorded when I updated or at 1pm GMT. (2/6)
Image
1
7
Stats: —Time: 64.5 days —Updates: 80 —Median daily prediction: 78% —Average daily prediction: 76% —Lowest daily prediction: 45% —Days spent >=60%: 62.5 —Days spent >=80%: 31.5 —Days spent >=90%: 12.5 —Days spent >=95%: 5.5 —Days spent >=98%: 4.5 —Days spent >=99%: 3.5 (3/6)
1
3
Show replies
This is a great plot. I suggest replacing the label "me" with your name so others will be able to repost it without confusion. Also, do you have similar plots/analyses for forecasts of other major events, such as covid outbreak, the 2021 stock market crash, etc?
2
Rarely do you see similar questions across all the platforms. However, when it comes to big questions I plan to do more of this aggregation on . I did something similar for Powell's renomination:
Quote Tweet
Bravo to the #superforecasters at Good Judgment Inc. (@superforecaster) who held the most steadfast on #Powell's renomination over the past few weeks! The lowest briers of the bunch! Nevertheless, the PMs deserve a round of applause for giving better info than the #MSM. twitter.com/ClayGraubard/s…
Show this thread
Image
Image
Image
Image
1
2
Show replies