"In our estimation...a large-scale [Russian] military operation cannot take place for at least the next two or three weeks." Worth reading Ukrainian military experts' take on situation. TL;DR they say other scenarios more likely. Details in thread & link.
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Among the authors is former defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk. "127k Russian servicemen along border, in occupied territories of eastern Ukraine and Crimea. This figure has not actually increased since April. This number of troops is not enough for a full-scale offensive."
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Here's what Ukrainian military experts say is most likely to happen (Google translated from Ukrainian gets the point across just fine here):
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And here's what they say is less likely but not impossible: missile or air-strikes on strategic target.
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Attacks on & capture of large cities much less likely, these Ukrainian experts say. "But special attention should be paid to strengthening the capacity to defend Kyiv."
"The country must prepare for war. This is the main thing. Readiness is absolutely and critically important."
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Then again, that’s exactly what Russia would hope to be telegraphing with their moves. The difficulty in maintaining an element of spacial surprise due to imaging and social media necessitates establishing surprise in a temporal sense.
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What does Putin hope to achieve ? Most Ukraine now westernised , Does he think 45 million will become good little Soviets ? Maybe he sees a successful Ukraine as a unsettling role model for the rest of Russia
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