Christophe Fraser

@ChristoPhraser

Infectious disease epidemiologist. Professor @ Oxford BDI. Pathogen dynamics and evolution. HIV. AMR. Outbreaks.

University of Oxford
Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2014.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    Huaiyu Tian, & others find that Wuhan city shutdown delayed the spread of to 400 other Chinese cities by about 3 days on average. Shortly to appear medRxiv.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    As the case numbers grow and challenge surveillance capacity in more places, we need a way to estimate case numbers without testing everyone. We thought thru this in 2009 flu - this Lancet paper resulted. Please share

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    Contact patterns seem to have changed so dramatically in China in a little over a week. I understand we have to expect / plan for continued incidence growth there, but... Has there ever been such a large synchronized change in social contacts?

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    The turning point in 2009 was the serosurvey data, including from UK boarding schools where full documentation of illness was available, and from FluWatch. The mild and asymptomatic cases put everything in perspective. Let's hope...

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  5. 1. velj

    Assessing the extent of mild infections is tricky during early stages of an outbreak, when testing and medical capacity is strained; it requires screening of appropriate populations. Useful methods developed in 2009 influenza epidemic; there was considerable initial uncertainty.

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  6. 1. velj

    A useful description two current uncertainties (thread). These will become less uncertain in days and weeks to come, but for now planning should continue to allow for these different scenarios.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. sij

    Appears there are at least two critical unknowns about that, once we have more information on them, will help further focus response efforts.

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  8. 31. sij
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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia | NEJM

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    Another careful estimate from finds consistent estimates of incubation time across subgroups of cases

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    We combined multiple datasets with a mathematical model to estimate how R0 has varied over time in Wuhan. We found R0 has likely fluctuated between 1.5-4, with strong indication that R0 was above 2 in early Jan. More info and context below... 1/

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China from the super-high-quality RIVM group of Jacco Wallinga

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. sij

    Some sobering thoughts here, a really interesting thread

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. sij
    , , i još njih 7
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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. sij

    Another rational and informed voice: Dr. Tom Frieden, Former CDC Director, on the Latest Scientific Developments, and Implications for Novel Coronavirus Prevention and Control

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  16. 26. sij

    Figure 3B shows very encouraging findings, indicating impressive reductions in the time taken to isolate patients after symptoms. Rapid and effective case isolation, as indicated by figure 3B, could play a key role in containing the epidemic.

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  17. 26. sij

    A very useful addition to the large number of preprints posted in the last few days. Thanks for sharing so quickly. At first read, this seems to employ a range of robust methods to estimate R - 2.9, 95% CI 2.3-3.7 - and a useful like-for-like comparison with SARS2002

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. sij

    Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

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  19. 25. sij

    By ‘reaction’ here I mean attempting containment. This requires public support. Containment measures most effective when enacted early, usually in the face of considerable uncertainty, before all data are in hand to perform detailed risk assessments.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    25. sij
    Odgovor korisnicima i sljedećem broju korisnika:

    Worth noting that et al have lowered their estimate significantly.

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