Ok, so, let’s say, hypothetically speaking, Erdogan says, “Fuck you, I’m with Russia now, your people can evacuate but the fifty nukes are mine.” Because if I sensed weakness in an empire, that’s exactly the gamble I’d take. What does this disaster of an administration do?
The briefcase doesn’t hand the entire arsenal. All he needs are those specific codes, and once again, you’re making the assumption he’s a rational actor. Don’t look at him as someone who does what’s rational. Look at him through the lens of everything he’s done in the past.
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Like, this is literally the guy who hired Giuliani as his lawyer. The guy who can’t maintain a proper sentence structure. The guy who thinks that combover and spray tan is fooling anyone, and has also been consistently terrible his entire life. That’s the guy with the codes.
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At the end of the day what you're talking about isn't any less plausible than Erdogân pulling the same trick after we move the nukes out of Turkey though. Either way his leverage is hostages not (non functional without the football) nukes.
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Plus, Trump is in the habit of giving them everything else they want. Including Syria. Where does that pattern end?
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