this is just "successful plans are smart, failed plans (or no plan) are dumb"
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En réponse à @a_man_in_black @ChrisWarcraft
and it absolutely does not describe the pre-war european willingness to annihilate a generation to preserve Empire
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En réponse à @a_man_in_black
No, it's "successful plans take human nature into account," (for comparison - how Germany was treated at the end of WWI vs. at the end of WWII) and I would suggest that the willingness to sacrifice an entire generation was an example of the sunk cost fallacy.
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En réponse à @ChrisWarcraft
this is hindsight bias. post-wwii europe was divided into bipolar alliances that would have led to the annihilation of life in much of the world had they ever been activated
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En réponse à @a_man_in_black @ChrisWarcraft
after two catastrophic wars over nationalism and self-determination, after wwii germany was divided more or less arbitrarily
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En réponse à @a_man_in_black @ChrisWarcraft
"human nature" isn't some obvious and unchanging inherent quality that "dumb people" simply chose to ignore.
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En réponse à @a_man_in_black
Sure it is. The immediate tribe comes first (self, family). The near tribe comes next (neighbors/villagers). The ideological tribe comes after that, or sometimes before. After that? Fuck 'em, the mind can't hold that many people.
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En réponse à @ChrisWarcraft @a_man_in_black
This is a fairly well studied sociological phenomenon, and holds consistently true throughout history (exceptions do happen, of course).
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En réponse à @ChrisWarcraft
listen to yourself, though. sociology isn't even as old as the US! you are confusing the map - contemporary psychological, sociological, and political understanding - for the terrain - why other people do things
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En réponse à @a_man_in_black
Quantum theory is barely a century old, and yet we're using it to build computers. Venerability is not a defense, and sociology didn't need to be invented in order to describe human nature.
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History itself tells us how humans behave, and it's remarkably accurate (once you learn to account for source bias)
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En réponse à @ChrisWarcraft
we do not have anything even approaching a perfect grasp of history - it may not even be possible
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En réponse à @a_man_in_black
I agree that a perfect grasp is likely not possible, but we do the best with what we have, and what we have is pretty illuminating.
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