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3/ The winning play was right in front of us – bring together all of Latin America behind a transition or new, free elections, and take the time to work with or neutralize Maduro’s patrons (Russia, Cuba, and to a lesser extent China).
4/ But Trump couldn’t talk to Cuba (bc Obama), Putin had Trump wrapped around his finger, and all Trump wanted to talk to China about was the trade deal. So we made no meaningful effort to move them, and all three stood solidly behind Maduro.
5/ Then, Trump and his Latin America hawks got itchy. He recognized Guaido as the leader of the nation, thinking that would propel Venezuelans (and Maduro-friendly military leaders) to Guaido’s side.
6/ In fact, the opposite happened. By putting Elliot Abrams (the symbol of “American imperialism” in Latin America) in charge of Venezuela, and by acting largely alone, Trump helped Maduro rally the military and much of the country against America and cast Guaido as a U.S. pawn.
7/ Then, it got real embarrassing. In April 2019, we tried to organize a kind of coup, but it became a debacle. Everyone who told us they’d rally to Guaido got cold feet and the plan failed publicly and spectacularly, making America look foolish and weak.
8/ Since then, it’s been a running comedy of errors. For instance, Bolton scuttled promising transition talks led by Norway in August 2019 saying “the time for negotiations is over!” Then this March, Pompeo unveiled a transition plan that is a carbon copy of the one we killed.
9/ Now, having wasted a year trying to work on a transition plan, Guaido is boycotting the upcoming legislative elections. So what then? Keep recognizing Guaido as the nation’s leader, even if he doesn’t control the military, the government, or even hold office?
10/ It’s a total disaster. After a year and a half, Maduro is stronger, American influence is weaker, and there is no viable path to restore democracy in Venezuela. A case study in international relations malpractice.
A shame when you can't tell who the good guys are.pic.twitter.com/0JkU4M3esF
The whole world stood in solidarity around Maduro. The only exceptions were a few sold out politicians. The sheer volume of spin and rewritten history in this thread is astounding. It reads like orwellian comedy. Nobody supports US-backed coups against populist left wing leaders.
And no force would have moved those three countries because they respect something called international law. And recognizing Guaido when there was a true legitimate government in place is a blatant interference in the internal affairs of Venezuela.
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