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Was a pity the Council decided to release it under embargo late in the afternoon. Meant London based journalists such as me cancelled plans to attend the launch outside the capital...https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1224608723760533504 …
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The amazing thing is how the fiscal surplus on the current budget, which looked rock solid 10 months ago, has melted away...pic.twitter.com/8ONsRAnJNC
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Sajid Javid’s surplus goal at risk if BoE view of the economy prevails at the OBR and enters official forecastshttps://www.ft.com/content/27b81994-4690-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441?shareType=nongift …
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Chris Giles proslijedio/la je Tweet
@ChrisGiles_ gives a fair (and in my view accurate) summary of the aggregate economic effects of Brexit to date. But what should economists watch for going forward? Here are two questions I would like answered ... 1/https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1223277414366830592 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Chris Giles proslijedio/la je Tweet
PUBLIC SERVICE KLAXON
It's Brexit day so we should do the definitive assessment of the 2016 referendum vote on economic performance
Note: Definititve DOES NOT EQUAL certain
Definitive DOES NOT EQUAL permanent 1/pic.twitter.com/gqULleLsAQ
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Conclusions: 1) Brexit has left Britain missing out on about 2% of growth so far 2) Economists expect the difficulties to mount, but it's not certain 3) Forecasts were good, unless they were made by people with axes to grind 4) These conclusions are not set in stone ENDS
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Equally, we might live in the world the
@bankofengland sketched out yesterday with 1% sustainable growth a year. That will not be enough to fund the public services we expect. 14/Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Over time the absolute errors have evolved. At first - in 2016, it seemed economic damage was much smaller than expected. But it was delayed not averted. We must hope that after Brexit, things get better. They might 13/pic.twitter.com/xD6MWAXqzJ
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But the
@hmtreasury also made definitively bad forecasts, just before the referendum when it predicted a shallow recession - It was too pessimistic, although it's main scenario (shock) is no longer looking so shabby 12/pic.twitter.com/Xjwpbemd4N
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The forecasts made by BoE, OBR, IMF, Consensus of private forecasters after the referendum have been remarkably good. One private sector group did very badly, however. Economists for Brexit - which now goes under the name
@Econs4FreeTrade 11/pic.twitter.com/E4CSXfRBc4
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There's been much talk of how economists got it wrong and the predictions of some economic pain were misplaced. To date: this is definitively untrue. 10/
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We can put that in context - that the equivalent of the UK economy missing out on activity worth roughly £44bn a year (the economy is roughly £2,200 bn in 2019-20) That is quite big money - and in the referendum context, it's more than 2 Boris buses 9/pic.twitter.com/bUDEXN52xb
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But the combined picture of weakness compared with forecasts, weakness compared with other countries and weakness compared with history all suggests the Brexit vote has left the UK worse off than it would have been... I think a sensible estimate is about 2 per cent of GDP 8/pic.twitter.com/pyC2Rr5Xjb
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Compared with sensible historical comparisons, UK economic performance has also been weak since Q2 2016. Again, these episodes have been seen before and do not prove anything alone... 7/pic.twitter.com/JPxt6eFcrF
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And the uncertainty of the economic environment, damped business investment relative to other countries until very recently But note - these effects might be temporary, as
@julianHjessop reasonably claims 6/pic.twitter.com/Wv4CYLrdrg
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We can pinpoint one thing easily. A big fall in sterling which squeezed household and corporate incomes (higher import prices) but did next to nothing for exports 5/pic.twitter.com/p9upzyphkT
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Or just look at the differences This does suggest something different and bad was happening to the UK economy that didn't occur elsewhere 4/pic.twitter.com/c0NHOyv4r3
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There are many possible reasons for forecasts to be over-optimistic. This happens all the time. So did we see similar over-optimism for other large economies ??? No. The opposite. (These from IMF data) 3/pic.twitter.com/oZrRrYThOl
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If you look at a standard pre-referendum forecast (eg OBR March 2016), It expected 7.1% growth to Q3 2019 Reality was 5% So there was a disappointment compared with pre-referendum forecasts of a little over 2% of national income 2/pic.twitter.com/M3YAvAx409
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PUBLIC SERVICE KLAXON
It's Brexit day so we should do the definitive assessment of the 2016 referendum vote on economic performance
Note: Definititve DOES NOT EQUAL certain
Definitive DOES NOT EQUAL permanent 1/pic.twitter.com/gqULleLsAQ
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