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  1. Was a pity the Council decided to release it under embargo late in the afternoon. Meant London based journalists such as me cancelled plans to attend the launch outside the capital...

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  2. 3. velj

    The amazing thing is how the fiscal surplus on the current budget, which looked rock solid 10 months ago, has melted away...

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  3. 3. velj

    Sajid Javid’s surplus goal at risk if BoE view of the economy prevails at the OBR and enters official forecasts

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    gives a fair (and in my view accurate) summary of the aggregate economic effects of Brexit to date. But what should economists watch for going forward? Here are two questions I would like answered ... 1/

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    🚨 PUBLIC SERVICE KLAXON 🚨 It's Brexit day so we should do the definitive assessment of the 2016 referendum vote on economic performance Note: Definititve DOES NOT EQUAL certain Definitive DOES NOT EQUAL permanent 1/

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  6. 31. sij

    Conclusions: 1) Brexit has left Britain missing out on about 2% of growth so far 2) Economists expect the difficulties to mount, but it's not certain 3) Forecasts were good, unless they were made by people with axes to grind 4) These conclusions are not set in stone ENDS 🚨

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  7. 31. sij

    Equally, we might live in the world the sketched out yesterday with 1% sustainable growth a year. That will not be enough to fund the public services we expect. 14/

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  8. 31. sij

    Over time the absolute errors have evolved. At first - in 2016, it seemed economic damage was much smaller than expected. But it was delayed not averted. We must hope that after Brexit, things get better. They might 13/

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  9. 31. sij

    But the also made definitively bad forecasts, just before the referendum when it predicted a shallow recession - It was too pessimistic, although it's main scenario (shock) is no longer looking so shabby 12/

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  10. 31. sij

    The forecasts made by BoE, OBR, IMF, Consensus of private forecasters after the referendum have been remarkably good. One private sector group did very badly, however. Economists for Brexit - which now goes under the name 11/

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  11. 31. sij

    There's been much talk of how economists got it wrong and the predictions of some economic pain were misplaced. To date: this is definitively untrue. 10/

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  12. 31. sij

    We can put that in context - that the equivalent of the UK economy missing out on activity worth roughly £44bn a year (the economy is roughly £2,200 bn in 2019-20) That is quite big money - and in the referendum context, it's more than 2 Boris buses 9/

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  13. 31. sij

    But the combined picture of weakness compared with forecasts, weakness compared with other countries and weakness compared with history all suggests the Brexit vote has left the UK worse off than it would have been... I think a sensible estimate is about 2 per cent of GDP 8/

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  14. 31. sij

    Compared with sensible historical comparisons, UK economic performance has also been weak since Q2 2016. Again, these episodes have been seen before and do not prove anything alone... 7/

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  15. 31. sij

    And the uncertainty of the economic environment, damped business investment relative to other countries until very recently But note - these effects might be temporary, as reasonably claims 6/

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  16. 31. sij

    We can pinpoint one thing easily. A big fall in sterling which squeezed household and corporate incomes (higher import prices) but did next to nothing for exports 5/

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  17. 31. sij

    Or just look at the differences This does suggest something different and bad was happening to the UK economy that didn't occur elsewhere 4/

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  18. 31. sij

    There are many possible reasons for forecasts to be over-optimistic. This happens all the time. So did we see similar over-optimism for other large economies ??? No. The opposite. (These from IMF data) 3/

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  19. 31. sij

    If you look at a standard pre-referendum forecast (eg OBR March 2016), It expected 7.1% growth to Q3 2019 Reality was 5% So there was a disappointment compared with pre-referendum forecasts of a little over 2% of national income 2/

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  20. 31. sij

    🚨 PUBLIC SERVICE KLAXON 🚨 It's Brexit day so we should do the definitive assessment of the 2016 referendum vote on economic performance Note: Definititve DOES NOT EQUAL certain Definitive DOES NOT EQUAL permanent 1/

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