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ChrisDanforth's profile
Chris Danforth
Chris Danforth
Chris Danforth
@ChrisDanforth

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Chris Danforth

@ChrisDanforth

Applied mathematician @uvmvermont Co-creator of http://hedonometer.org , http://storywrangling.org , @compstorylab Distracted by burpees & new data. Proud dad

Shelburne, VT
cdanfort.w3.uvm.edu
Joined May 2011

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    Chris Danforth‏ @ChrisDanforth 24 Jan 2019

    Meanwhile, weather prediction, our society's best algorithmic decision support tool, and one of the great success stories of science, continues to improve. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6425/342 …pic.twitter.com/wPK0IZwCZR

    3:43 PM - 24 Jan 2019
    • 262 Retweets
    • 535 Likes
    • C. Brandon Ogbunu David V. Rosowsky, Ph.D. Dave Foster Sarah Nowak Alex Pawlowski Tom de 2022 Barry Cavin Zaki Bubobubosibericus✊🏾
    13 replies 262 retweets 535 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Chris Danforth‏ @ChrisDanforth 24 Jan 2019

        figure shows that “modern 72-hour predictions of hurricane tracks are more accurate than 24-hour forecasts were 40 years ago” we take it for granted, but this is incredible.

        2 replies 16 retweets 91 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Chris Danforth‏ @ChrisDanforth 24 Jan 2019

        for more typical weather, the "modern 5-day forecast is as accurate as a 1-day forecast was in 1980, and useful forecasts now reach 9 to 10 days into the future"

        5 replies 21 retweets 86 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. Dr Lesley Seebeck‏ @lesleyseebeck 26 Jan 2019
        Replying to @ChrisDanforth

        ‘Investment in weather forecasting pays large dividends, ranging from 3 to 10 times the costs...A 2009 study, for example, found that the value of weather forecasts to U.S. households is US$31.5b, from public expenditures of just US$3.4b and private expenditures of US$1.7b.’

        0 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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      1. John Repique‏ @JRepique 26 Jan 2019
        Replying to @ChrisDanforth

        Dear Science, Thank you! Sincerely, Florida 🤓

        0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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      1. mk mitty‏ @emkaymitty 26 Jan 2019
        Replying to @ChrisDanforth

        partly due to more real-time data from more locations

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Steve Berg‏ @sberg0 26 Jan 2019
        Replying to @ChrisDanforth @Kasparov63

        I had heard this but nice to see it plotted out. Is the story similar for any measure of the strength of storms at landfall?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Mike Smith‏ @USWeatherExpert 27 Jan 2019
        Replying to @sberg0 @ChrisDanforth @Kasparov63

        Unfortunately, no. Meteorologists have become quite adept at forecasting storm location but not as good at forecasting storm strength. There is clearly an element that is missing but we can’t quite figure out what it is.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Unapologetically 🌴Floridian‏ @GinaFla 26 Jan 2019
        Replying to @ChrisDanforth @Kasparov63

        Meanwhile, I'm looking at my bone dry street that, according to the weather man, was supposed to be getting a month's worth of rain. 🤣

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. dcbrewer‏ @dcbrewer68 26 Jan 2019
        Replying to @ChrisDanforth

        Unfortunately, it did not improve at all during the last 35 days while the government was shut down. #ThankstRump

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Hootyman‏ @TheHootyman 26 Jan 2019
        Replying to @ChrisDanforth @Kasparov63

        Seems better - but they really screwed the pooch on Irma. Just a day before landfall “eye path” changed from Miami to Fort Myers!!! My son living in Ft Myers didn’t get an evac warning until 12 hours before the strike - by then too late to move. https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/bs-md-irma-saturday-20170909-story,amp.html …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Mike Smith‏ @USWeatherExpert 27 Jan 2019
        Replying to @TheHootyman @ChrisDanforth @Kasparov63

        No, they didn’t “screw” up Irma. Weather science was being asked to do something that meteorologists know was impossible to do consistently. Why? Evacuation times. It is explained in article below. https://slate.com/technology/2017/09/weather-forecasting-is-better-than-its-ever-been.html …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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