figure shows that “modern 72-hour predictions of hurricane tracks are more accurate than 24-hour forecasts were 40 years ago” we take it for granted, but this is incredible.
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for more typical weather, the "modern 5-day forecast is as accurate as a 1-day forecast was in 1980, and useful forecasts now reach 9 to 10 days into the future"
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‘Investment in weather forecasting pays large dividends, ranging from 3 to 10 times the costs...A 2009 study, for example, found that the value of weather forecasts to U.S. households is US$31.5b, from public expenditures of just US$3.4b and private expenditures of US$1.7b.’
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Dear Science, Thank you! Sincerely, Florida
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partly due to more real-time data from more locations
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I had heard this but nice to see it plotted out. Is the story similar for any measure of the strength of storms at landfall?
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Unfortunately, no. Meteorologists have become quite adept at forecasting storm location but not as good at forecasting storm strength. There is clearly an element that is missing but we can’t quite figure out what it is.
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Meanwhile, I'm looking at my bone dry street that, according to the weather man, was supposed to be getting a month's worth of rain.
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Unfortunately, it did not improve at all during the last 35 days while the government was shut down.
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Seems better - but they really screwed the pooch on Irma. Just a day before landfall “eye path” changed from Miami to Fort Myers!!! My son living in Ft Myers didn’t get an evac warning until 12 hours before the strike - by then too late to move. https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/bs-md-irma-saturday-20170909-story,amp.html …
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No, they didn’t “screw” up Irma. Weather science was being asked to do something that meteorologists know was impossible to do consistently. Why? Evacuation times. It is explained in article below. https://slate.com/technology/2017/09/weather-forecasting-is-better-than-its-ever-been.html …
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