If Trump decides to pull out is the Iran deal dead?
‘Never underestimate the willingness of Congress to do nothing…’ @Jparakilas tells @Monocle24
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‘There is a decent possibility that Trump will say ‘We're out of the deal - it's done' - and the more hawkish senators will issue statements congratulating him saying 'Now we can have a real Iran policy' and then not actually institute any sanctions.’
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‘If sanctions reimposed unilaterally via the State Dept are relatively minor - and congress doesn't take additional action - then yes you could have an Iran deal continuing to exist for some time between China, Russia, Germany, France, UK and Iran, with the US outside of.’
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If Congress were to act, sanctions would apply to European companies doing business with Iran, forcing European governments to choose between their commercial interests with Iran and political interests with the US, and that could lead to a real crisis in Transatlantic relations.
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