Seeing "States that saw a drop in prisons also saw a drop in crime" so much lately. It… hurts my statistical soul. Now, TBF:
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Replying to @JohnFPfaff
I think causal impact of prison on crime reduction is low, in some cases likely negative now. But still: relationship is REALLY endogenous.
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Replying to @JohnFPfaff
Without exception, citing simple correlations as part of an (implied) causal story using highly endogenous data must be called out.
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Replying to @JohnFPfaff
A ton of bad policy decisions flow from ignoring over overlooking endogeneity, selection bias, etc. No passes bc maybe bias "weak enough."
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Replying to @JohnFPfaff
As phrased I don't read any causality into that "also saw," just a refutation of the US baseline causal story that more prisons
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
But that's the identical claim. That's the problem! "More prisons = less crime" can be true EVEN IF crime and prison rise or fall together.
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All true but it is big news to majority of the country that smaller prison pops and lower crime rates can coexist, regardless of connection
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