Seeing "States that saw a drop in prisons also saw a drop in crime" so much lately. It… hurts my statistical soul. Now, TBF:
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But that's the identical claim. That's the problem! "More prisons = less crime" can be true EVEN IF crime and prison rise or fall together.
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Anyway, no one EVER cites a simple correlation just to cite it. There is always a causal reason to make a statistical statement.
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But fact is the observed correlation doesn't refute the baseline bc correlations--esp w endogenous data--CAN'T refute counterfactuals.
End of conversation
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less crime