There has always been a greater risk of conflict with Russia under a President Trump than a President Clinton.https://twitter.com/jricole/status/880088307090292736 …
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
Idk - didn't Hillary's proposed Syria NFZ provide a pretty direct pathway to said conflict?
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Replying to @SergeiX
Yes, Hillary's NFZ also a terrible idea but fact that she + her whole foreign policy apparatus would have been *predictable* lowers risk
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Replying to @ChaseMadar @SergeiX
Without making a fetish of "stability," a foreign policy that is carried out in a predictable & coherent fashion lowers risk.
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Replying to @ChaseMadar @SergeiX
I dunno that saying "her regime change in Syria and likely resulting conflict with Russia would at least be predictable" is very comforting.
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Replying to @ScubaForDogs @ChaseMadar
Yeah like a lot of decisions by predictable establishment experts have turned out very badly in the last few years/decades
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Replying to @SergeiX @ScubaForDogs
I hear you–and yet. In late 2001, v few would have predicted Bush/Cheney would have responded with an invasion of… Iraq? A spasmodic choice.
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I think phlegmatic predictability is of more value in helping to avoid great power conflict than asymmetric wars.
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