1. Trump speech starts by noting 17% homicide spike in 50 largest US cities last year. What does this stat mean?http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/full-transcript-donald-trump-nomination-acceptance-speech-at-rnc-225974 …
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
2. Given that most law enforcement is state + local, makes no sense to pin this on "this Administration's rollback of criminal enforcement."
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
3. But what about the 17% urban spike in homicides–surely that indicates a national crime wave? Not to be a buzzkill, but no, not really.
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
4. Last year Dallas saw a 16% homicide spike. Unprecedented violence? No. In fact, 2015 was 4th lowest homicde total on record in Dallas.
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
4A. Source for
#pt.http://www.dallasnews.com/news/crime/headlines/20160107-dallas-murders-jumped-17-percent-in-2015-to-136-but-rate-among-lowest-in-history.ece …2 replies 7 retweets 16 likes -
Replying to @ChaseMadar
5. In other words, had Dallas' 2015 homicide total–even though 16% up from 2014–happened in 2008 or 2010, it would have been a record low.
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
6. A question of base rates: a 17% increase from a small number (100) is less of an absolute increase than 9% from a larger number (200).
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
7. Trump clutches at the very serious homicide spikes in a few cities (Baltimore, DC, Chicago) like a drowning man grabbing a life preserver
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
8. Trump and others are desperate to make a national trend out of these few cities' carnage amid crime rates that remain low by US standards
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Replying to @ChaseMadar
9. Despite crime steadily falling since '91, crime panic is a salty snack treat many Americans just cannot give up:http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/07/psychology-why-americans-afraid-low-crime-levels.html …
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10. Anyway, for good, numerate analysis of crime and law enforcement, follow @JohnFPfaff and @davidminpdx. Numeracy: a tool for justice!
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