1. Trump speech starts by noting 17% homicide spike in 50 largest US cities last year. What does this stat mean?http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/full-transcript-donald-trump-nomination-acceptance-speech-at-rnc-225974 …
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3. But what about the 17% urban spike in homicides–surely that indicates a national crime wave? Not to be a buzzkill, but no, not really.
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4. Last year Dallas saw a 16% homicide spike. Unprecedented violence? No. In fact, 2015 was 4th lowest homicde total on record in Dallas.
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5. In other words, had Dallas' 2015 homicide total–even though 16% up from 2014–happened in 2008 or 2010, it would have been a record low.
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6. A question of base rates: a 17% increase from a small number (100) is less of an absolute increase than 9% from a larger number (200).
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7. Trump clutches at the very serious homicide spikes in a few cities (Baltimore, DC, Chicago) like a drowning man grabbing a life preserver
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8. Trump and others are desperate to make a national trend out of these few cities' carnage amid crime rates that remain low by US standards
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9. Despite crime steadily falling since '91, crime panic is a salty snack treat many Americans just cannot give up:http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/07/psychology-why-americans-afraid-low-crime-levels.html …
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10. Anyway, for good, numerate analysis of crime and law enforcement, follow
@JohnFPfaff and@davidminpdx. Numeracy: a tool for justice!
End of conversation
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It's never been about facts with these folks. Recall, the birth certificate hunt. Pray no more than 45% of people buy this stuff.
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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don't Administration's policies and actions affect local environment? Isn't that why they're called national policies?
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Exactly -- duh
@realDonaldTrump everything outta his mouth is not thought out! -- someone WILL be blown up by this freak!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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