2. Given that most law enforcement is state + local, makes no sense to pin this on "this Administration's rollback of criminal enforcement."
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3. But what about the 17% urban spike in homicides–surely that indicates a national crime wave? Not to be a buzzkill, but no, not really.
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4. Last year Dallas saw a 16% homicide spike. Unprecedented violence? No. In fact, 2015 was 4th lowest homicde total on record in Dallas.
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5. In other words, had Dallas' 2015 homicide total–even though 16% up from 2014–happened in 2008 or 2010, it would have been a record low.
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6. A question of base rates: a 17% increase from a small number (100) is less of an absolute increase than 9% from a larger number (200).
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7. Trump clutches at the very serious homicide spikes in a few cities (Baltimore, DC, Chicago) like a drowning man grabbing a life preserver
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8. Trump and others are desperate to make a national trend out of these few cities' carnage amid crime rates that remain low by US standards
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9. Despite crime steadily falling since '91, crime panic is a salty snack treat many Americans just cannot give up:http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/07/psychology-why-americans-afraid-low-crime-levels.html …
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10. Anyway, for good, numerate analysis of crime and law enforcement, follow
@JohnFPfaff and@davidminpdx. Numeracy: a tool for justice!
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C'mon. The US sucks in every imaginable way, & ONLY the world's biggest sociopath can fix it & fix it ALL IMMEDIATELY. God help us

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lol!! RELAX! VOTE! We got this! :)
#VoteBlue#DownTicketDems -
I haven't been able to relax since June 16th of last year. Absolutely terrifying that he has even ONE supporter.
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I hear you my friend -- I have (seriously) lost sleep! I am seeing amazing democratic action -- must stay positive ....
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Brilliant....thank you!
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Sounds Scarry! I have to hide under my bed till he Saves me!
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@politico wow actual analysis. It's almost as if we should apply this to other things in the national spotlight right nowThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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the stat analysis I think is besides the point. a low rate spiked... arguably because a president signaling.
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Nice work
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