For understandable reasons, the world's media is focused on #Kabul -- the #Taliban knows this & is working hard to display a more appetizable image.
Bear in mind that this is (a) likely unsustainable & (b) largely PR. Think about what's happening elsewhere across #Afghanistan.
Conversation
Fact check: -- we *do* have troops in #Yemen & plenty of SOF in #Africa too.
And there's not a single CT expert out there - that I know of - who's suggested that terrorists won't find vital opportunities to revitalize in a #Taliban-controlled #Afghanistan.
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And for the record, the mere act of withdrawing & catalyzing the collapse of #Afghanistan has led 100s of #AlQaeda operatives being released from prison by the #Taliban.
That's *at least* doubled AQ's operational force in the space of a week. Are we safer from that? No.
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From a CT-type perspective, this is good news -- but from a humanitarian perspective, it means $billions less to keep basic services going.
The humanitarian crisis being spoken of isn't just displacement -- it's much broader & hardly being revealed yet.
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The US Treasury just froze billions in reserves that the Afghan government holds in US banks and possibly even in Western institutions. The Taliban won’t have access to the funds. #Afghan #Afghanistan @USTreasury
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#NATO was demoralized by #Trump & hopeful after #Biden's election -- the #Afghanistan debacle has put that hope to bed.
: "#NATO allies urge rethink on alliance after #Biden’s ‘unilateral’ #Afghanistan exit"
ft.com/content/3ea7e8
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“The idea that things were somewhat under control, therefore we can pack up our bags and leave, was extraordinarily shortsighted. #AlQaeda hadn’t chosen to relocate elsewhere.. 1+1=2.. #AlQaeda will thrive & at least recover.”
My comments to :
news.yahoo.com/talibans-retur
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“The #Taliban-#AlQaeda relationship is as firm as it’s ever been... The #Taliban’s political positioning may have evolved somewhat over the years, but relationships like that are far more resilient.”
My comments, cited by of :
theguardian.com/world/2021/aug
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Oh wow.
I’m also hearing that the “shelter in place” order (while understandable in the circumstances) has left 1,000s behind an intricate cobweb of #Taliban checkpoints, where fighters are checking *all* cell phones for *anything* in English & French.
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American personnel destroyed the passports of some Afghans when they were getting rid of all sensitive materials at the US embassy in Kabul in preparation for full evacuation, per an update that Rep. Andy Kim’s office is sharing w/ people requesting assistance with evacuations.
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According to the aides, the Biden administration officials told Senate staffers that there is no plan to evacuate Americans who are still outside of Kabul, as they do not have a way of getting through the Taliban checkpoints outside the capital city.
washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/
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#Democrat-led Senate (1) Intelligence, (2) Foreign Relations & (3) Armed Services committees are all planning to investigate what they call the "horrifying results" of not "being better prepared" & the admin's "flawed execution of the U.S. withdrawal."
politico.com/news/2021/08/1
Replying to
Generals & diplomats at the highest level warned about the consequences of an #Afghanistan pullout, but -- as is becoming increasingly clear -- the decision had already been made.
Good reporting by & :
wsj.com/articles/biden
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It's 4:00am in Kabul. The Taliban are currently going through the crowd outside of the airport and beating the SIV men with chains. While thousands of our Marines are just the other side of the gate, ordered to stand down and not engage. @POTUS
It didn't have to be this way
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President #Biden's approval rating has dropped from 53% to 46% since Friday -- as the domestic effect of the #Afghanistan debacle begins to become clear.
A parallel Ipsos poll rated #Biden worse on #Afghanistan than, #Bush, #Obama & #Trump.
reuters.com/world/us/biden
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"What does it say about us as a country... if we are entirely dependent on a unilateral decision taken by the United States?"
Former PM Theresa May criticises "major setback for British foreign policy... where is global Britain on the streets of Kabul?"
bbc.in/3yZJipI
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"This last week has been one that has seen me struggle through anger and grief and rage. The feeling abandonment of not just a country but the sacrifice my friends made"
Conservative and veteran Tom Tugendhat says some wounds have been "torn open"
bbc.in/37QITKv
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The signs have been emerging for days now that the debacle that resulted from #Biden's overly-hasty #Afghanistan withdrawal was going to have repercussions with allies -- and judging from talk in the #UK Government today, it can no longer be refuted.
Very disappointing to see.
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.@clarissaward describing the hectic situation she and her team were in last hour -- including a couple close calls with Taliban fighters.
"I covered all sorts of crazy situations. This is mayhem. This is nuts... To me, it's a miracle more people haven't been seriously hurt."
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Anas Haqqani met Karzai and assured him of security and inquired about his well being. @KarzaiH
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“The counterterrorism posture went from problematic w. the US withdrawal to extraordinarily bad w. the #Taliban in full control.. Suddenly one wonders if we'll go entirely dark. It’s like a bad dream.”
- , former #CIA base chief in #Afghanistan:
washingtonpost.com/national-secur
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How did US policy towards #Afghanistan withdrawal get it so wrong?
This is *THE* definitive explainer by my colleague , who spent 34yrs in the #CIA -- his last post was Counterterrorism Chief for South & Southwest Asia.
Read it:
justsecurity.org/77801/cias-for
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.:
"Our impression was #Khalilzad was angling to be #Trump’s SecState.. & would do/say what he was told to secure his future by pleasing the mercurial president, including his steady compromise of whatever leverage the US had to incentivize #Taliban compromises."
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"The US defense establishment only exacerbated the problem... [The DOD's] rose-colored depictions of achievement over 20yrs flew in the face of reality & was consistently challenged by the #CIA’s more gloomy, albeit realistic projections."
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By all accounts, the #Taliban's PR effort has indeed been restricted to #Kabul only -- and even there, it's already fraying at the edges.
Elsewhere in #Afghanistan, reports of reprisal attacks, widespread searches/arrests & today's deadly shooting in Jalalabad.
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"I write from the #Panjshir Valley today, ready to follow in my father’s footsteps, with mujahideen fighters who are prepared to once again take on the #Taliban."
Ahmad Massoud calls on the US & #Europe to provide his resistance forces weapons/supplies:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/
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Wow -- Round 2.
This time turning his ire to ("a privileged little brat... as complicit as the #Taliban in these people's deaths").
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Afghan vet @mattczeller tears into Stephen Miller for saying Afghan refugees don't deserve to come here:
"As far as I’m concerned, he personally is as complicit as the Taliban in these people’s deaths. He should be held accountable for war crimes!"
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On July 8, President #Biden said the #Afghanistan withdrawal would be "secure & orderly" & that a #Taliban takeover was "highly unlikely.
Today, on Aug 18, #Biden told that "chaos" was "inevitable" amid a U.S. withdrawal.
So which is it?
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The #Taliban is already beginning to lash out against former adversaries & imposing itself brutally across #Afghanistan -- and in #Kabul, the #Taliban PR machine might be alive, but command/control is fraying around the edges.
What's #Kabul going to look like on/after Aug 31?
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One thing that's lost amid the focus on how quickly the #Taliban took over #Afghanistan is that President #Biden has now said on several occasions that the U.S. knew a #Taliban takeover was inevitable -- the only Q was when.
So we chose to leave *knowing* the #Taliban would win.
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Per the transcript, President #Biden said the US doesn't have "any military in #Syria" -- which is incorrect, we have ~900.
That inaccurate line has been repeated by the #Biden admin in recent days. Why such a glaring, repeated mistake?
abcnews.go.com/Politics/full-
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Two remarkable lines in today’s papers from @Steven_Swinford @benrileysmith
— UK military left in the dark by the US about timings and pace of their withdrawal… UK official confirms this is the case
— Biden ignored Boris Johnson’s attempts to speak on the phone for 36+ hours
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MONDAY -- "#Afghanistan’s Collapse & the Implications for Global Jihadism & Counterterrorism"
- This event should be well-worth tuning in for; great panel:
David Kilcullen
& me, moderating.
RSVP:
mei.edu/events/afghani
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NEW - "I sat through more NSC meetings than I care to recall which featured evidence of.. the ISI’s complicity in protecting, financing & enabling the #Taliban [& more].. to draw #American blood & kill innocent civilians."
for :
mei.edu/publications/y
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Yes, exit was Trump policy. Yes, he would have communicated and executed it in even clumsier, more crass way.
But we expected empathy, strategy and wisdom from Biden. His messaging targeted Trump’s base, not rest of the world, and not allies, past or (we’ll need them) future.
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