Charles ListerVerified account

Taking a brief foray back to Twitter to note the strategic significance of today's U.S. strikes on Kataib #Hezbollah in #Syria & #Iraq. 19 dead (incl. 3 #IRGC) & 35+ wounded is a major response by the U.S. - alike #Israel's retaliatory modus operandi - BUT note: U.S is exposed.

#pt: The U.S. government apparatus (esp. IC) has known for a long time - and feared - this scenario, whereby the death of an American would necessitate a serious response, which in turn would leave U.S. personnel in #Syria & especially #Iraq exposed to #IRGC counter-retaliation.

#pt: #IRGC-linked rocket attacks in #Iraq are hardly new, but the death of an American was. Likewise, the death of 19+ KH fighters is new & a marked walk up the escalation ladder. #Iran holds the cards now & re-escalation seems likely -- leaving #Trump in a position he fears.

#pt: A KH/PMU response lies mainly in the hands of Qassem Soleimani - who's made it his quest to evict #America from the #MiddleEast, leaving #Israel strategically exposed. Watch east #Syria & attacks on U.S. facilities in #Iraq, plus "black swans" like #Iran joining in #Idlib.

2 days ago, I said the US was exposed & the ball was in #Iran’s court; their response: A major protest has besieged the US Embassy in #Baghdad & breached security perimeters. Very dangerous situation unfolding. #Iraq forces did little to prevent this. https://twitter.com/baxtiyargoran/status/1211953187177021441?s=21 …https://twitter.com/BaxtiyarGoran/status/1211953187177021441 …

#pt: As CTS forces race to the US Embassy compound, pro-#Iran protesters have breached a further gate into the Embassy, where all staff reportedly remain in place. This could spiral out of control or begin to dissipate - either way, this is a game-changing moment in #Iraq IMO.