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Contrary to many claims, #Assad *hasn't* won anything in #Syria; he's merely survived through terror & blood.
- Remaining opposition holdouts look intractable.
- More & more signs of instability.
- Reconciliation is crumbling.
- #ISIS, #AQ & more remain.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/11/assad-hasnt-won-anything-syria/ …pic.twitter.com/NMUYuM8tbc
After nearly 3 months of hostilities, #Assad has entirely failed in #Idlib, #Hama & #Latakia - only 1% territory retaken.
Without #Iran & its allies on the ground, #Syria looks incapable of expanding further; #Russia is not enough.
Status quo -> "Gazafication" of #Idlib.
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The #Idlib zone contains ~3million people, ~60K of whom are fighters (~50% mainstream; 50% jihadi).
#HTS is emerging as de facto governor.
#AlQaeda is reverting to #BinLaden's vanguard model. I'm told external attack plotting is being actively considered - very dangerous.
2/10pic.twitter.com/fRmjyerld9
In #Syria, #ISIS is Remaining, but Not Expanding [Yet].
~370 attacks have hit east #Syria since March - most attributed to #ISIS.
U.S *is* withdrawing & allied troop levels look set to be insufficient to (1) defeat #ISIS, (2) train #SDF & (3) contain #Assad/#Iran/#Russia.
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West of the #Euphrates, #ISIS remains a real danger - but #Assad's regime has publicly disinvested in countering #ISIS, choosing a policy of containment in order to prioritize the [now failing] #Idlib offensive.
#Iran & #Hezbollah are filling the vacuum - taking advantage.
4/10pic.twitter.com/h6KVW9ZLOe
Elsewhere in #Syria, "reconciliation" deals are crumbling & instability rising.
In the south, 250+ attacks have been recorded since June - most attributed to "resistance forces."
Fledgling insurgencies are also visible in #Damascus, #Aleppo & in the #Badiya/#DeirEzZour.
5/10pic.twitter.com/BTuRzIQ3I9
Meanwhile, #Syria's economy is crippled & the country is largely destroyed.
#Assad regime corruption, warlordism & mismanagement are feeding rising discontent in loyalist areas.
Sanctions are exacerbating these conditions - and none of this looks set to improve, at all.
6/10pic.twitter.com/1TfUlWHjAb
#Syria reconstruction is a fantasy - the cost may reach $780bn by 2021.
If #Syria equalled #Afghanistan in getting the world's highest reconstruction aid, it'd take 50+ yrs to rebuild - that's conditional upon having *no corruption & efficient spending* (i.e. impossible).
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Take one example: rebuilding #Syria's 2 million destroyed homes would require a decade of annual imports:
- 25m tons of cement
- 5m tons of iron
#Damascus hasn't the money, or infrastructure. The water needed to mix the concrete alone makes this task literally impossible.
8/10pic.twitter.com/gIACH9XyoL
The US *does* have interests in #Syria & we ought to know by now how instability there can so dramatically effect the world.
The US *does* have the potential to achieve [more] realistic policy goals in #Syria, but not amid a "withdrawal" that erodes credibility & leverage.
9/10pic.twitter.com/NiCOyedRN7
Leaving now might seem a pragmatic move to (a) cut our losses or (b) avoid a "forever war," but doing so *now* guarantees:
1) Long-term instability
2) Jihadist survival
3) #Iran consolidation
4) #Russia victory
+ A future inability to go back, if [inevitably] we need to.
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