I don't understand why everyone's so hyped up about "chance of winning" reports; I don't find them useful. See: http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast …
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Replying to @Carols10cents
"We’ll never really know whether a particular forecast was correct or incorrect, since they’re all probabilistic" election only happens 1x!
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Replying to @Carols10cents
Uncertainty makes more sense to me! "Silver’s forecast is more uncertain that the result will match what the current polling data shows"
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Replying to @Carols10cents
"As Silver has written, his model also assumes a higher likelihood of a Clinton landslide win than many of the others" give me error bars!
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"we genuinely don’t know what will happen in the future" also humans are bad at thinking in terms of probabilities ANYWAY
1:40 PM - 3 Nov 2016
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