Model through first 63 matches
Prob. favorite wins/% who won
50-59%/62%
60-69%/56%
70-79%/73%
80-89%/80%
90-99%/88%
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-us-open-t
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Model through first 126 matches
Prob. favorite wins/% who won
50-59%/60%
60-69%/64%
70-79%/70%
80-89%/80%
90-99%/94%
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-us-open-t
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Model through first 159 matches
Prob. favorite wins/% who won
50-59%/58%
60-69%/68%
70-79%/74%
80-89%/84%
90-99%/91%
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-us-open-t
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We wouldn't expect to. We should get 70% of those we predict to have 70% chance to win etc.
Oh, needed comma before "right"! Got it. I didn't make the predictions so not 100% sure. cc
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