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We expect a small drop in the ISM manufacturing index to 51.5 in July, from 51.7.
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When the 737 Max is eventually cleared - the Chicago PMI will recover
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Your regular reminder that Boeing is based in Chicago and, hence, the
#chicagoPMI tends to be heavily swayed by swings in aircraft production. The national ISM index will be less affected.pic.twitter.com/ZzYrylzli8
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The business employment dynamics data goes back a lot further, but still the same story - small firm employment isn't a leading indicator of broader employment trendspic.twitter.com/H5erzyKqYo
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The
#ADP survey shows a big deterioration in employment growth at small firms, but there's no evidence that this was a *leading* indicator in earlier cyclespic.twitter.com/WPq3m6m8Qz
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Capital Economics - US proslijedio/la je Tweet
Reassessing the rally in Treasuries. See our Daily: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/capital-daily-publication/reassessing-the-rally-in-treasuries/ …pic.twitter.com/EEtqybXXVF
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Capital Economics - US proslijedio/la je Tweet
Read this week's edition of our Chief Economist's note, "Picking apart the threat from secular stagnation". https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/picking-apart-the-threat-from-secular-stagnation/ …
#CapitalEconomics#Blog#Economicspic.twitter.com/AMJnaN68hp
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Capital Economics - US proslijedio/la je Tweet
A year ago
@CapEconomics was predicting that the Fed will be cutting rates in 2020: https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-27th-2018-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2/ … The market has recently been catching up with that forecast.pic.twitter.com/6mLH21Shvc
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That's because productivity growth is rebounding, which means unit labour cost growth has actually slowed! As a result, core CPI inflation could even fall back below 2%.pic.twitter.com/OEVZsVgzEA
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In the past 12 months hourly earnings growth has accelerated by almost 1% point, but core price inflation is broadly unchanged.pic.twitter.com/SyjypIF3mn
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Capital Economics - US proslijedio/la je Tweet
Read this week's edition of our Chief Economist's note, "Why the consensus on
#Asia is wrong – and why it matters for the rest of the world". https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/why-the-consensus-on-asia-is-wrong-and-why-it-matters-for-the-rest-of-the-world/ …#CapitalEconomics#Blog#Economicspic.twitter.com/VEmXfK6ggs
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It's relatively rare for underlying retail sales to contract on a quarterly annualised basis - at least outside of a recession.pic.twitter.com/QdLLAnSk80
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Capital Economics - US proslijedio/la je Tweet
Read this week's edition of our Chief Economist's note, "The dangers of over-interpreting a US-China
#trade#deal". https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/the-dangers-of-over-interpreting-a-us-china-trade-deal/ …#CapitalEconomics#NeilShearing#Blog#Economics#US#Chinapic.twitter.com/1jImci4tjm
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We had been working on the assumption the terminal size would be $3.0trn.
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If the Fed stops this year, the terminal size of the balance sheet must be about $3.5trn, down from a peak of $4.3trn but way below the pre-crisis size of less than $1trn.https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-brainard-says-balance-sheet-runoff-should-probably-end-this-year-11550159755 …
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Q: If a wealth tax is unconstitutional in the US (because its a progressive non-income tax), why is the estate tax valid?
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Capital Economics - US proslijedio/la je Tweet
Thanks to
@martinwolf_ for this smart synopsis of our view that China will slow far more than generally expected over the next couple of decadeshttps://twitter.com/martinwolf_/status/1080078228629454848 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
The contribution from energy to CPI inflation is about to go from +0.8% points to -0.6% points. If oil prices remain at current levels, headline CPI inflation will be well below 2% for most of 2019.pic.twitter.com/IIOkQqBHXc
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Lower gasoline prices mean households will have more than $40bn annualised to spend on other goods and services. (Or could save more)pic.twitter.com/qxnFoabMPg
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Retail gasoline prices will drop to $2.30 a gallon within another couple of weeks.pic.twitter.com/UQulatbev1
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