Christian AlthausKonto zweryfikowane

Based on R0 of MERS, probability to see a cluster >= 41 about 0.5% @nprhealth @Virology_Bonn @kakape @majamajumder @svscarpino @MackayIM

@c_althaus @nprhealth @virology_bonn @majamajumder @svscarpino @mackayim Is that assuming he infected all of the others?

@kakape @nprhealth @virology_bonn @maiamajumder @svscarpino @mackayim No. But because R0 < 1, majority of cases will be from one source.

@c_althaus @alexvespi @kakape @NPRHealth Even for R0<1, it surely depends on how number of offspring is distributed.

@joel_c_miller @alexvespi @kakape @nprhealth Exactly. But maybe less you would think and in a non-linear way.

@c_althaus @joel_c_miller @alexvespi @kakape @NPRHealth Of course if we had a genomic surveillance system in place, this would be far easier