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So that's still relatively high. However, visitors from the UK (and South Africa) must now go into quarantine in Switzerland. This might prevent some of the potential further spread of the new variant. 10/nhttps://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/empfehlungen-fuer-reisende.html …
Nevertheless, we have to assume that the new variant might start to spread in Switzerland during the coming weeks, particularly because it might have increased transmissibility and therefore a higher Re. End. 11/n
Given current estimates of Swiss testing prevalence and current swiss sequencing capacity, can you generate an estimate of the likelihood that we’ll catch it in the sequencing samples?
cc: @firefoxx66
An interesting question might be: by how much would R have to be reduced from current levels in order to have a reasonable chance of driving the new variant to extincion.. could be an additional reason to increase measures now..
We have been late time and time again. Hospital capacity has been used as the KPI by politicians. That’s like driving 150km/h in foggy conditions. In the woods.
If going to sky isn't particularly favorable for virus spreading. By the way, that such a rich country as switzerland kept sky resorts open it is a scandal.
Thanks, what is the back of the envelope probability with a Re of 1.5 (the least we can expect is a Re 0.4 higher apparently)?
If the new variant is more infectious, shouldn't a higher Re estimate be used?
Let us assume most visitors from UK were not in quarantine.
I don’t remember any requirements between November and a few days ago. They couldn’t do anything wrong then.
Don't we know that Re of the mutant is 0.4 or more higher? Should that not be taken into account in these calculations? That is: Re=1.45 (or more) instead of 1.05?
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