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But there is more to it. The equation above assumes that the number of secondary cases are geometrically distributed (k = 1). However, #SARSCoV2 exhibits superspreading and the number of secondary cases is highly overdispersed (k ~ 0.5). 7/n https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058 …
That means that many infected cases do not transmit at all, and only a few infected individuals have the potential to initiate a sustained transmission chain. 8/n
Assuming k = 0.5, we obtain a probability of 58% (for Re = 1.05) and 79% (for Re = 1.1) that the 25 cases will initiate a sustained transmission chain in Switzerland. 9/n
So that's still relatively high. However, visitors from the UK (and South Africa) must now go into quarantine in Switzerland. This might prevent some of the potential further spread of the new variant. 10/nhttps://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/empfehlungen-fuer-reisende.html …
Nevertheless, we have to assume that the new variant might start to spread in Switzerland during the coming weeks, particularly because it might have increased transmissibility and therefore a higher Re. End. 11/n
Can we assume that with a new variant? Perhaps the new variant doesn’t realize much on super spreaders.
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