Christian AlthausKonto zweryfikowane

The Swiss government issued an ordinance stating that restaurants can be kept open when R < 1, and must close when R > 1 at the cantonal level. Worth having some reflections about how R values should influence policy decisions. A thread. 1/n https://www.admin.ch/opc/de/classified-compilation/20201774/index.html …

"Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range." The current range in the UK is reported as 1.1-1.2. Note the careful attention to uncertainty in these estimates. 4/n

"The UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over very different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state.” 5/n

“Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK level estimates are less meaningful than previously." 6/n

"When the numbers of cases or deaths are at low levels and/or there is a high degree of variability in transmission across a region, then care should be taken when interpreting estimates of R and the growth rate." 7/n

"Different modelling groups use different data sources to estimate these values using mathematical models that simulate the spread of infections. Some may even use all these sources of information to adjust their models to better reflect the real-world situation.” 8/n