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"When the numbers of cases or deaths are at low levels and/or there is a high degree of variability in transmission across a region, then care should be taken when interpreting estimates of R and the growth rate." 7/n
"Different modelling groups use different data sources to estimate these values using mathematical models that simulate the spread of infections. Some may even use all these sources of information to adjust their models to better reflect the real-world situation.” 8/n
“There is uncertainty in all these data sources so estimates can vary between different models, so we do not rely on just one model; evidence from several models is considered, discussed, combined, and the growth rate and R are then presented as ranges.” 9/n
“The most likely true values are somewhere within the ranges." 10/n
Bottom line: Considering the amount of uncertainty that comes with estimates of R, don’t base your policy decisions solely on values of R. 11/n
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