Christian AlthausKonto zweryfikowane

Our statistical tool to analyze the epidemic trends of #SARSCoV2 in Switzerland is now online. (1/n) @ISPMBern @unibern @ETH @SwissScience_TF https://ibz-shiny.ethz.ch/covidDashboard/ 

In the current situation, it is critically important to follow the epidemic trends of #SARSCoV2 across age groups and cantons. Changes in the number of daily confirmed cases, hospitalizations, ICU occupancy and deaths can all provide meaningful insights. (2/n)

One can fit a negative binomial generalized linear model (glm.nb in R) to the data with reported numbers as a response variable and date and weekend as predictors. This allows to estimate the exponential increase or decrease of the different indicators of the epidemic. (3/n)

The trends are typically best observed over a time period of two weeks. Due to reporting delays, we also need to remove the last 3 and 5 days of confirmed cases and hospitalizations/deaths, respectively. (4/n)

In contrast, ICU occupancy and deaths were still slowly increasing but might now follow the trend indicated by the other two indicator variables. (6/n)